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Macro Comment US

Macro Comment US — Payrolls of 178,000 support a rate hike in December

Non-farm payrolls in November were in line with expectations, increasing by 178,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.6 percent, whereas hourly earnings fell by 0.1 percent, which was signifi-cantly weaker than expected. We keep our view that the next increase in the federal funds rate will take place in December. Financial markets agree and now fully price in such a rate hike.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global makrokommentar USA — Ekonomiska konsekvenser av presidentvalet

Trumps förslag att deportera elva miljoner illegala invandrare skulle, om det genomförs, skada ekonomin. Frågan är om han verkligen är beredd att genomföra något så dramatiskt? Eventuellt ska hotet om utvisningar och höga tullar för Mexiko och Kina ses som ett förhandlingsutspel, som förutom att öka hans segerchanser också kan tvinga fram internationella eftergifter. Utvisningar och tullar skiljer kandidaterna åt och förklarar varför tillväxten är högre för Clintons valprogram än för Trumps.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Payrolls up 156,000 in September

Non-farm payrolls in September were weaker than expected and increased by 156,000. The unemployment rate increased unexpectedly to 5.0 percent, whereas hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent, which was also weaker than expected. We keep our view that the next increase in the federal funds rate will take place in December. Financial markets agree and now price in a 62.6 percent's chance of a rate hike in December.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Fed signalled a rate increase in December

The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 0.25-0.5 percent at its September interest rate meeting. Three voting members dissented. They preferred a tightening at this meeting. In our view, the case for a rate increase in December has strengthened markedly. Thus, we stick to our forecast of an increase in December.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Payrolls up 151,000 in August; the September hike is off

Nonfarm payrolls in August were weaker than expected and increased by 151,000. The unemployment rate remained unexpectedly at 4.9 percent, whereas hourly earnings increased by 0.1 percent, which also was weaker than expected. Financial markets reacted and are now pricing in a 26 percent chance of a rate increase in September. We maintain our view that the next increase in the federal funds rate will take place in December.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Payrolls up by 255,000 in July; June was revised upward

Nonfarm payrolls in July were much stronger than expected and increased by 255,000, although the unemployment rate did not decline as expected. It remained unchanged at 4.9 percent. Moreover, hourly earnings increased by 0.3 percent. The market pricing of future interest rate moves changed modestly. Now, financial markets price in a 24 percent chance of a rate increase in September and a 46 percent chance in December.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se