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Swedish CommentHousing prices in January

  1. House prices increased by 3.4 percent m-o-m, which was stronger than expected
  2. The price increase in January was fairly broad-based
  3. High number of housing units for sale, despite the rise in transactions
House prices increased by 3.4 percent m-o-m, which was stronger than expected
The monthly percentage change was 3.4 percent, according to Valueguard’s HOX index. Prices increased even taking into account that January is normally a relatively strong month for house prices. The seasonally-adjusted monthly increase was 1.1 percent in January, following -1.1 percent in December (according to our calculations). This was stronger than we had expected. Compared with January 2017, house prices decreased by 2.2 percent (versus a 2.5 percent decline in December), according to Valueguard’s HOX index.
The price increase in January was fairly broad-based
Prices increased for houses as well as for flats in January, in monthly terms. Previously, we have seen the price of tenant-owned flats decline more than the price of houses. Compared with January 2017, prices of tenant-owned flats decreased by 3.2 percent and prices of houses by 0.8 percent. Houses in Malmö showed the strongest figures, in seasonally-adjusted monthly terms.
High number of housing units for sale, despite the rise in transactions
The number of housing units for sale is elevated, despite the fairly high level of real estate transactions per month. According to statistics from the website Hemnet, the annual percentage change dropped slightly for tenant-owned flats in January, but it is about 60 percent higher than in January 2017. As we have mentioned before, higher housing construction has added new supply to the market; however, we can also see some signs of changed buying and selling behaviour compared with last year. We expect to see some further price declines in the near term, partly related to the new stricter amortisation requirements that will be implemented from March 1, 2018. Still, we continue to expect calmer developments going forward, as consumer confidence shows no signs of weakness, and the economy is supported by rising global demand and low interest rates.

 


Sources: Handelsbanken, Valueguard.

 
 


Sources: Handelsbanken, Valueguard, Macrobond

 


Sources: Valueguard, Macrobond


Sources: Svensk Mäklarstatistik, Macrobond

 


Sources: Hemnet, Macrobond



Disclaimer

Helena Bornevall

Senior Economist

Scenario Analysis

hebo12@handelsbanken.se

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