Research
Web TV
Speakers´ corner
Financial Calendar
Chart of the Day
Economic Graphs
Forecast Table
Our Analysts
Choose preferred languages and areas/regions of interest:
Choose type:
Published: 22 March 2018 | Macro Comment US | Keywords: FED
22 March 2018
Substantially more expansionary fiscal policy indicates stronger growth for both 2018 and 2019 than in our January forecast. However, the demand impulses from the tax reform and budget deal also increase the risks of overheating. The Federal Reserve will, in our view, respond and raise the policy rate three more times this year. Moreover, we believe that financial conditions will tighten more than households and firms expect. Thus, even if we now expect growth to be maintained for longer, we are still more pessimistic than consensus about the longer-term performance of the US economy and believe that the US will lead the next global downturn.
Head of Forecasting
Global Research
2018-03-22
2018-02-12