Research


Choose type:


SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2016-04-28

Flip phone for more data.

Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.250.251.00
US (range midpoint)0.3750.6250.6250.8751.1251.6252.5002.500
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
Norway0.500.500.250.000.00-0.10-0.25-0.25
Denmark0.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.25
UK 0.500.500.500.500.750.751.502.00
3m interbank rates Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.48-0.40-0.35-0.30-0.30-0.050.501.10
US0.670.900.951.201.451.952.602.60
Eurozone-0.26-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.250.00
Norway0.990.950.700.450.450.350.200.20
Denmark-0.11-0.10-0.100.000.000.100.100.35
2y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.43-0.60-0.55-0.45-0.300.000.551.15
US0.861.001.051.201.401.702.502.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.52-0.50-0.40-0.30-0.25-0.25-0.200.10
Norway0.620.500.450.300.200.100.100.20
Denmark-0.44-0.50-0.40-0.25-0.20-0.15-0.100.25
Finland-0.51-0.45-0.35-0.25-0.20-0.20-0.150.15
UK0.440.500.600.600.751.001.251.75
5y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.15-0.050.000.100.250.551.001.50
US1.351.451.501.601.701.902.502.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.38-0.35-0.35-0.30-0.25-0.200.000.25
Norway0.920.850.750.600.500.400.400.60
Denmark-0.13-0.10-0.100.000.050.100.300.55
Finland-0.29-0.20-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.050.200.45
UK0.850.901.001.101.251.301.502.00
10y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.770.800.850.951.101.351.752.25
US1.841.901.952.002.052.102.502.50
Eurozone (Germany)0.140.200.200.250.300.350.700.90
Norway1.431.251.101.101.101.001.001.00
Denmark0.380.450.450.500.550.601.001.20
Finland0.430.500.500.550.600.651.101.30
UK1.541.701.801.701.952.052.252.50
2y swaps Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.32-0.30-0.25-0.150.000.300.851.45
US1.011.151.201.351.551.902.702.75
Eurozone (Germany)-0.16-0.15-0.050.000.050.050.050.30
Norway1.040.850.800.650.550.450.450.50
Denmark0.070.100.200.300.350.350.400.70
UK0.840.850.951.001.151.401.652.15
5y swaps Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.280.350.400.500.650.901.351.85
US1.321.401.501.651.752.002.752.75
Eurozone (Germany)0.000.050.050.050.100.100.300.50
Norway1.251.151.050.900.800.700.700.90
Denmark0.300.350.350.400.450.450.650.80
UK1.101.151.251.351.451.501.702.25
10y swaps Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden1.131.151.201.301.451.702.102.60
US1.681.801.902.002.102.202.752.75
Eurozone (Germany)0.540.600.600.600.650.651.001.20
Norway1.691.551.501.501.501.401.401.40
Denmark0.860.900.900.951.001.001.351.55
UK1.491.551.651.702.002.202.402.70

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2016-05-18

Latest value Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
EUR/SEK9.279.109.008.908.808.758.758.75
USD/SEK8.298.278.339.379.269.219.218.75
GBP/SEK12.1711.7411.6111.4811.3511.2911.6711.67
NOK/SEK1.000.960.950.940.930.920.950.97
DKK/SEK1.251.221.211.191.181.171.171.17
CHF/SEK8.378.508.418.098.007.817.817.61
JPY/SEK7.567.196.947.817.537.377.096.63
CNY/SEK1.261.271.261.381.331.321.321.25
EUR/USD1.121.101.080.950.950.950.951.00
USD/JPY109.68115.00120.00120.00123.00125.00130.00132.00
EUR/GBP0.7620.7750.7750.7750.7750.7750.7500.750
GBP/USD1.471.421.391.231.231.231.271.33
EUR/CHF1.111.071.071.101.101.121.121.15
EUR/DKK7.447.447.457.457.467.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.800.820.830.840.850.850.850.85
USD/DKK6.656.766.907.847.857.857.857.46
GBP/DKK9.769.609.619.619.639.639.959.95
CHF/DKK6.726.956.966.776.786.666.666.49
JPY/DKK6.065.885.756.546.386.286.045.65
EUR/NOK9.279.509.509.509.509.509.259.00
SEK/NOK1.001.041.061.071.081.091.061.03
USD/NOK8.298.648.8010.0010.0010.009.749.00
GBP/NOK12.1612.2612.2612.2612.2612.2612.3312.00
CHF/NOK8.378.888.888.648.648.488.267.83
JPY/NOK7.557.517.338.338.138.007.496.82
USD/BRL3.583.803.904.004.104.204.204.20
USD/RUB65.7665.7067.3067.4066.8066.1068.8064.60
USD/INR67.1968.0068.5069.0069.5070.0070.5071.00
USD/CNY6.566.506.606.806.957.007.007.00
EUR/PLN4.414.304.254.254.254.154.104.00
EUR/RUB73.5672.3072.7064.0063.5062.8065.4064.60

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2016-04-28

201420152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018
Sweden2.403.803.503.702.402.102.10
Norway2.201.60-0.300.400.800.701.20
Norway Mainland2.301.000.600.701.401.001.90
Finland-0.700.501.001.001.201.200.90
Denmark1.301.200.300.900.500.800.50
EMU0.901.601.501.601.501.701.40
USA2.402.401.702.102.002.001.70
UK3.002.302.102.102.001.901.80
Japan-0.100.500.500.800.600.900.70
Brazil0.10-3.80-4.00-3.800.201.001.50
Russia0.60-3.70-2.00-2.001.001.001.50
India6.807.107.507.507.708.008.00
China7.306.906.506.506.306.306.10
Czech Republic2.004.302.502.402.802.702.60
Hungary3.702.902.402.402.602.602.60
Poland3.403.603.503.503.503.503.30
Slovakia2.403.503.103.103.303.303.00

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2016-04-28

201420152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018
Sweden-0.20-0.101.100.902.102.102.60
Norway2.002.103.002.401.501.801.10
Finland1.00-0.200.200.801.001.201.40
Denmark0.600.500.401.001.001.401.40
EMU0.400.000.300.501.301.401.60
USA (core)1.501.301.701.602.002.002.20
UK1.500.001.301.701.702.002.00

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Unemployment forecasts updated 2016-04-28

201420152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018
Sweden7.907.406.706.806.707.107.60
Norway3.504.404.905.005.105.205.00
Finland8.709.409.309.509.109.308.90
Denmark6.506.205.905.906.306.106.50
EMU11.6010.9010.4010.7010.1010.409.80
USA6.205.304.804.804.604.504.70
UK6.205.405.505.405.705.306.00

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR.