Research


Choose type:


SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2019-04-25

Flip phone for more data.

Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25
US (range midpoint)2.3752.3752.3752.3752.3751.6251.625
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40
Norway1.001.001.251.251.251.251.25
Denmark-0.65-0.55-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.45
UK 0.750.750.750.750.750.750.75
3m interbank rates Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.03-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
US2.522.682.682.682.681.931.93
Eurozone-0.31-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30
Norway1.461.401.651.651.651.651.65
Denmark-0.34-0.20-0.20-0.15-0.15-0.20-0.20
2y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.61-0.50-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.30
US2.202.302.252.202.001.501.65
Eurozone (Germany)-0.65-0.55-0.50-0.50-0.55-0.60-0.60
Norway1.281.401.401.501.501.501.50
Denmark-0.64-0.50-0.40-0.35-0.35-0.45-0.45
Finland-0.56-0.45-0.40-0.40-0.45-0.50-0.50
UK0.690.900.800.700.700.700.70
5y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.41-0.15-0.10-0.050.00-0.050.10
US2.172.452.382.252.101.751.88
Eurozone (Germany)-0.52-0.30-0.20-0.20-0.25-0.30-0.20
Norway1.381.601.601.601.601.601.60
Denmark-0.48-0.35-0.25-0.15-0.15-0.25-0.25
Finland-0.35-0.15-0.05-0.05-0.10-0.15-0.05
UK0.790.900.800.800.800.800.80
10y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.180.300.400.450.500.450.60
US2.392.602.502.302.202.002.10
Eurozone (Germany)-0.110.100.200.250.250.200.30
Norway1.631.801.901.951.951.902.00
Denmark-0.010.150.250.350.350.250.35
Finland0.230.450.450.500.500.450.55
UK1.041.201.101.001.001.001.00
2y swaps Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.030.050.100.100.100.100.22
US2.242.502.452.402.201.701.85
Eurozone -0.24-0.10-0.05-0.05-0.10-0.15-0.15
Norway1.821.651.651.651.651.651.65
Denmark-0.160.000.100.150.150.000.00
UK0.951.050.950.950.950.950.95
5y swaps Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.280.370.420.470.520.510.64
US2.172.602.532.402.251.902.03
Eurozone -0.030.200.300.300.250.200.30
Norway1.911.901.901.901.901.901.90
Denmark0.070.200.250.350.350.450.45
UK1.081.151.051.051.051.051.05
10y swaps Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.760.901.001.051.091.021.16
US2.332.652.552.352.252.052.15
Eurozone 0.420.600.700.750.750.700.80
Norway2.052.102.202.302.302.302.30
Denmark0.540.650.750.850.850.800.85
UK1.231.451.351.251.251.251.25

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2019-04-25

Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020End 2021
EUR/SEK10.7510.7010.5010.3010.2810.2010.10
USD/SEK9.639.479.138.738.578.168.08
GBP/SEK12.2712.4412.0711.8411.4211.5911.74
NOK/SEK1.101.101.091.081.071.051.03
DKK/SEK1.441.431.411.381.381.371.35
CHF/SEK9.539.399.219.049.028.878.71
JPY/SEK8.768.698.618.478.167.427.21
CNY/SEK1.391.411.381.341.331.301.26
EUR/USD1.121.131.151.181.201.251.25
USD/JPY109.99109.00106.00103.00105.00110.00112.00
EUR/GBP0.8760.8600.8700.8700.9000.8800.860
GBP/USD1.271.311.321.361.331.421.45
EUR/CHF1.131.141.141.141.141.151.16
USD/CNY6.926.706.606.506.456.306.40
EUR/DKK7.477.477.477.467.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.690.700.710.720.730.730.74
USD/DKK6.696.616.506.326.225.975.97
GBP/DKK8.528.698.598.578.298.488.67
CHF/DKK6.626.556.556.546.546.496.43
JPY/DKK6.086.066.136.145.925.435.33
EUR/NOK9.799.709.609.509.609.709.80
SEK/NOK0.910.910.910.920.930.950.97
USD/NOK8.778.588.358.058.007.767.84
GBP/NOK11.1711.2811.0310.9210.6711.0211.40
CHF/NOK8.688.518.428.338.428.438.45
JPY/NOK7.987.887.887.827.627.057.00

Handelsbanken´s Commodities Forecast

Commodities forecasts updated 2019-04-09

Latest value End 2018Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Oil Brent72.0954.1470.0065.0065.0065.0060.00
Iron Ore98.1178.5995.0090.0080.0080.0080.00
Copper6,0575,9656,5006,0006,5006,0006,000
Nickel12,00010,59513,00013,00013,00012,50012,500
Aluminum1,8311,8701,9001,9501,9501,9001,850
Zinc2,5942,5113,0002,8502,8502,8002,800

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2019-04-09

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden*2.402.301.501.501.101.601.00N/A
Norway1.401.602.302.101.801.601.70N/A
Norway Mainland2.202.402.602.301.601.401.20N/A
Finland*2.302.501.501.701.001.000.80N/A
Denmark1.400.901.801.501.000.800.80N/A
EMU1.801.801.101.301.001.200.70N/A
USA*2.902.902.102.301.301.301.30N/A
UK1.401.301.201.401.101.301.20N/A
The Netherlands2.502.501.501.601.001.001.10N/A
China6.606.606.006.005.705.705.50N/A

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2019-04-09

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden2.002.002.002.202.202.301.80N/A
Sweden (CPIF)2.102.101.702.001.701.801.70N/A
Norway2.702.802.201.701.701.501.70N/A
Norway (core)1.601.502.301.901.901.801.80N/A
Finland1.101.101.201.301.401.201.40N/A
Denmark0.800.801.301.201.501.601.20N/A
EMU1.801.701.401.701.601.601.40N/A
USA (core)1.901.902.002.002.002.002.00N/A
UK2.502.501.902.001.901.901.90N/A
The Netherlands1.601.602.402.601.401.601.50N/A

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden6.306.306.106.206.306.406.70N/A
Norway3.903.903.603.503.503.503.60N/A
Finland7.407.406.506.906.506.906.80N/A
Denmark5.105.004.904.504.804.905.50N/A
EMU8.208.207.807.807.908.008.20N/A
USA3.903.903.803.704.104.104.40N/A
UK4.104.104.204.204.404.304.50N/A
The Netherlands3.803.903.503.504.104.004.60N/A

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR. * Calender Adjusted