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SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2016-06-30

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Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.250.50
US (range midpoint)0.3750.3750.3750.3750.6250.8751.500
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.20
Norway0.500.250.000.00-0.10-0.25-0.25
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.55-0.450.00
UK 0.500.500.250.250.250.250.25
3m interbank rates Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.54-0.45-0.40-0.35-0.250.000.75
US0.710.650.650.650.801.001.50
Eurozone-0.30-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.10
Norway1.040.750.450.450.350.200.20
Denmark-0.19-0.20-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.100.00
2y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.64-0.50-0.45-0.40-0.250.050.80
US0.690.600.600.600.801.001.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.63-0.60-0.55-0.50-0.40-0.30-0.10
Norway0.490.550.400.300.200.200.20
Denmark-0.55-0.60-0.50-0.45-0.35-0.250.00
Finland-0.57-0.50-0.45-0.40-0.30-0.200.00
UK0.170.200.200.250.250.300.45
5y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.47-0.20-0.15-0.050.150.450.95
US1.101.001.001.001.101.201.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.54-0.50-0.45-0.40-0.30-0.100.10
Norway0.550.750.600.500.400.400.60
Denmark-0.32-0.35-0.30-0.25-0.150.050.30
Finland-0.44-0.30-0.25-0.20-0.050.150.35
UK0.390.450.400.400.400.500.75
10y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.170.750.750.750.901.151.35
US1.561.501.501.501.601.601.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.060.000.100.100.150.200.30
Norway0.961.201.101.101.001.001.00
Denmark0.130.200.300.300.350.450.55
Finland0.140.300.400.400.450.500.60
UK0.961.000.950.950.951.001.20
2y swaps Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.44-0.30-0.20-0.150.050.351.15
US0.940.700.700.701.001.302.00
Eurozone (Germany)-0.22-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.000.20
Norway0.930.900.700.600.500.500.50
Denmark-0.030.000.050.100.150.200.40
UK0.520.600.600.650.650.700.85
5y swaps Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.020.250.300.400.600.901.40
US1.141.001.001.001.201.502.00
Eurozone (Germany)-0.120.000.050.100.150.300.35
Norway0.981.100.900.800.700.700.80
Denmark0.140.150.200.250.300.450.55
UK0.610.550.500.500.500.600.85
10y swaps Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.731.101.101.101.301.601.85
US1.461.401.401.501.701.902.00
Eurozone (Germany)0.350.500.550.550.550.600.80
Norway1.341.501.501.501.401.401.40
Denmark0.650.700.750.750.750.851.05
UK0.920.950.900.900.901.001.25

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2016-06-30

Latest value Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017End 2017End 2018
EUR/SEK9.469.108.908.808.758.708.60
USD/SEK8.618.438.488.388.338.298.19
GBP/SEK11.3711.1011.1311.0010.9410.8810.75
NOK/SEK1.020.960.940.950.970.990.98
DKK/SEK1.271.221.201.181.171.171.15
CHF/SEK8.718.438.178.007.957.917.68
JPY/SEK8.107.667.376.986.676.376.20
CNY/SEK1.291.261.251.231.211.181.17
EUR/USD1.101.081.051.051.051.051.05
USD/JPY106.35110.00115.00120.00125.00130.00132.00
EUR/GBP0.8320.8200.8000.8000.8000.8000.800
GBP/USD1.321.321.311.311.311.311.31
EUR/CHF1.091.081.091.101.101.101.12
EUR/DKK7.447.447.447.457.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.790.820.840.850.850.860.87
USD/DKK6.776.897.097.107.107.107.10
GBP/DKK8.949.079.309.319.339.339.33
CHF/DKK6.846.896.836.776.786.786.66
JPY/DKK6.366.266.165.915.685.475.38
EUR/NOK9.329.509.509.259.008.758.75
SEK/NOK0.981.041.071.051.031.011.02
USD/NOK8.478.809.058.818.578.338.33
GBP/NOK11.2011.5911.8811.5611.2510.9410.94
CHF/NOK8.578.808.728.418.187.957.81
JPY/NOK7.978.007.877.346.866.416.31
USD/BRL3.263.603.904.104.204.204.00
USD/RUB63.9566.5068.6069.2068.5067.2063.00
USD/INR67.1768.0068.5069.0069.5070.0071.00
USD/CNY6.686.706.806.806.907.007.00
EUR/PLN4.364.354.304.254.204.104.00
EUR/RUB70.3071.8072.0072.7071.9070.6066.20

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2016-06-30

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden3.903.303.602.302.402.102.10
Norway1.60-0.10-0.100.800.801.201.20
Norway Mainland1.000.800.801.401.401.901.90
Finland0.701.001.001.201.200.900.90
Denmark1.000.300.300.500.500.500.50
EMU1.601.401.501.301.501.301.40
USA2.401.701.702.002.001.701.70
UK2.301.602.100.902.001.301.80
Japan0.500.500.500.600.600.600.70
Brazil-3.80-3.10-3.100.200.201.501.50
Russia-3.70-1.50-1.501.001.001.501.50
India7.107.507.507.707.708.008.00
China6.906.506.506.306.306.106.10
Czech Republic4.302.502.502.802.802.602.60
Hungary2.902.402.402.602.602.502.60
Poland3.603.503.503.503.503.303.30
Slovakia3.603.103.103.303.303.003.00

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2016-06-30

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden-0.101.001.102.002.102.502.60
Norway2.103.003.001.501.501.101.10
Finland-0.200.200.801.001.201.401.40
Denmark0.500.401.001.001.401.401.40
EMU0.000.300.301.301.301.501.30
USA (core)1.301.701.702.002.002.202.20
UK0.001.301.301.701.702.002.00

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Unemployment forecasts updated 2016-06-30

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden7.406.906.906.907.307.407.90
Norway4.404.804.905.005.105.005.00
Finland9.409.309.309.109.108.908.90
Denmark6.205.905.906.306.306.506.50
EMU10.9010.2010.2010.1010.109.909.80
USA5.304.804.804.604.604.704.70
UK5.405.705.506.305.706.506.00

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR.