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SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2019-08-21

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Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25
US (range midpoint)1.8751.6251.3751.3751.3751.3751.375
Eurozone-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50
Norway1.251.251.251.251.251.251.25
Denmark-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75-0.75
UK 0.750.750.750.750.750.750.75
3m interbank rates Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.05-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
US2.161.931.681.681.681.681.68
Eurozone-0.40-0.42-0.42-0.42-0.42-0.42-0.42
Norway1.621.651.651.651.651.651.65
Denmark-0.43-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.40-0.35
2y govt. yields Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.62-0.60-0.60-0.55-0.55-0.55-0.40
US1.771.451.401.401.401.401.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.75-0.76-0.74-0.71-0.70-0.69-0.66
Norway1.241.151.151.151.151.151.20
Denmark-0.78-0.80-0.75-0.75-0.70-0.70-0.65
Finland-0.67-0.60-0.55-0.55-0.55-0.55-0.50
UK0.520.350.300.300.350.400.50
5y govt. yields Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.58-0.50-0.45-0.40-0.40-0.35-0.10
US1.681.551.531.531.531.581.80
Eurozone (Germany)-0.75-0.64-0.56-0.50-0.50-0.46-0.41
Norway1.281.151.151.151.151.151.35
Denmark-0.72-0.65-0.60-0.55-0.55-0.50-0.40
Finland-0.55-0.45-0.40-0.35-0.30-0.30-0.25
UK0.450.400.500.500.500.500.55
10y govt. yields Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.22-0.20-0.15-0.05-0.05-0.050.20
US1.801.651.651.651.651.752.10
Eurozone (Germany)-0.51-0.41-0.36-0.26-0.26-0.24-0.16
Norway1.321.151.201.201.201.201.40
Denmark-0.49-0.45-0.35-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.15
Finland-0.23-0.10-0.050.000.000.050.10
UK0.570.500.500.500.550.600.70
2y swaps Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.09-0.19-0.19-0.14-0.13-0.130.00
US1.661.651.601.601.601.601.70
Eurozone -0.43-0.36-0.34-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.26
Norway1.821.751.751.751.751.751.75
Denmark-0.35-0.30-0.30-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.20
UK0.770.600.600.600.650.700.80
5y swaps Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.02-0.050.000.040.050.080.32
US1.541.701.681.681.681.731.95
Eurozone -0.38-0.19-0.11-0.06-0.10-0.010.04
Norway1.721.651.651.651.651.651.80
Denmark-0.30-0.15-0.10-0.05-0.050.000.10
UK0.740.650.650.650.680.700.80
10y swaps Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.310.300.350.400.400.400.62
US1.621.701.701.701.701.802.15
Eurozone -0.100.090.140.24-0.260.270.34
Norway1.741.651.651.651.651.651.80
Denmark0.000.100.200.250.300.300.40
UK0.770.800.800.800.850.901.00

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2019-08-21

Latest value End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020End 2020End 2021
EUR/SEK10.7310.6510.6510.6310.6010.5810.40
USD/SEK9.709.519.519.329.148.978.52
GBP/SEK12.1111.8311.8311.9412.0512.0211.82
NOK/SEK1.091.091.091.081.081.081.06
DKK/SEK1.441.431.431.421.421.421.39
CHF/SEK9.749.689.599.499.389.289.04
JPY/SEK8.969.239.068.718.468.157.61
CNY/SEK1.371.321.301.281.231.211.12
EUR/USD1.111.121.121.141.161.181.22
USD/JPY108.21103.00105.00107.00108.00110.00112.00
EUR/GBP0.8860.9000.9000.8900.8800.8800.880
GBP/USD1.251.241.241.281.321.341.39
EUR/CHF1.101.101.111.121.131.141.15
USD/CNY7.097.207.307.307.407.407.60
EUR/DKK7.477.467.467.467.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.700.700.700.700.700.710.72
USD/DKK6.756.666.666.546.436.326.11
GBP/DKK8.438.298.298.388.488.488.48
CHF/DKK6.786.786.726.666.606.546.49
JPY/DKK6.246.476.346.125.955.755.46
EUR/NOK9.879.809.809.809.809.809.80
SEK/NOK0.920.920.920.920.920.930.94
USD/NOK8.938.758.758.608.458.318.03
GBP/NOK11.1410.8910.8911.0111.1411.1411.14
CHF/NOK8.978.918.838.758.678.608.52
JPY/NOK8.258.508.338.037.827.557.17

Handelsbanken´s Commodities Forecast

Commodities forecasts updated 2019-08-21

Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020
Oil Brent63.5565.0065.0065.0060.0060.00
Iron Ore94.1690.0090.0090.0090.0090.00
Copper5,8056,0006,5006,0006,0006,000
Nickel17,20013,00013,00012,50012,50012,500
Aluminum1,7921,8001,8501,8501,8501,850
Zinc2,3212,5002,6502,6002,6002,600

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2019-08-21

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden*2.502.401.501.500.801.101.301.00
Norway1.401.402.002.302.001.801.801.70
Norway Mainland2.202.202.602.601.601.601.201.20
Finland*1.702.301.501.500.901.001.100.80
Denmark1.501.401.701.800.901.000.800.80
EMU1.901.801.101.101.001.001.100.70
USA*2.902.902.102.101.201.301.701.30
UK1.401.401.101.201.101.101.201.20
The Netherlands2.502.501.501.501.101.001.201.10
China6.606.606.106.005.705.705.505.50

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2019-08-21

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden2.002.001.802.001.702.201.601.80
Sweden (CPIF)2.102.101.701.701.701.701.601.70
Norway2.702.702.102.301.801.501.801.80
Norway (core)1.601.602.302.302.101.801.801.80
Finland1.101.101.101.201.201.401.401.40
Denmark0.800.800.901.301.201.501.201.20
EMU1.801.801.301.401.401.601.401.40
USA (core)2.001.901.702.001.902.002.002.00
UK2.502.501.901.901.901.901.901.90
The Netherlands1.601.602.302.401.201.401.401.50

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden6.306.306.406.106.606.306.806.70
Norway3.903.903.503.603.503.503.603.60
Finland7.407.406.406.506.406.506.706.80
Denmark5.105.105.104.905.204.805.605.50
EMU8.208.207.807.807.907.908.208.20
USA3.903.903.703.804.104.104.404.40
UK4.104.103.904.204.104.404.304.50
The Netherlands3.803.803.403.504.104.104.604.60

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR. * Calender Adjusted