SHB Forecast - Handelsbanken Capital Markets

 

Research


Choose type:


SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2018-08-08

Flip phone for more data.

Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.25-0.250.000.250.50
US (range midpoint)1.8752.1252.3752.6252.8802.8752.375
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.400.000.00
Norway0.500.750.751.001.001.251.25
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.550.000.00
UK 0.750.750.750.750.750.750.75
3m interbank rates Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.36-0.35-0.20-0.100.030.300.55
US2.322.402.602.802.873.002.60
Eurozone-0.32-0.30-0.30-0.25-0.200.100.10
Norway1.051.151.151.401.481.651.65
Denmark-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.25-0.100.250.25
2y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.56-0.350.000.400.530.800.90
US2.592.602.803.002.922.752.70
Eurozone (Germany)-0.64-0.55-0.45-0.35-0.250.150.05
Norway0.980.901.001.101.151.251.25
Denmark-0.58-0.45-0.35-0.25-0.100.300.20
Finland-0.58-0.45-0.30-0.050.070.300.15
UK0.700.800.900.900.900.900.90
5y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.080.400.600.900.931.000.80
US2.732.902.903.002.932.802.60
Eurozone (Germany)-0.25-0.050.050.200.350.500.35
Norway1.431.501.601.701.701.701.60
Denmark-0.200.100.200.350.550.700.55
Finland-0.090.250.400.600.620.650.45
UK0.981.151.201.201.201.201.15
10y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden0.450.901.101.301.331.401.20
US2.863.153.003.002.952.852.80
Eurozone (Germany)0.320.600.700.801.001.201.00
Norway1.802.002.102.202.202.102.00
Denmark0.270.600.850.951.101.351.10
Finland0.540.901.101.301.321.351.10
UK1.391.501.601.601.601.601.50
2y swaps Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.140.050.400.750.871.101.20
US2.782.853.053.253.173.002.95
Eurozone -0.15-0.100.050.250.400.550.45
Norway1.491.501.501.601.601.601.50
Denmark-0.030.050.150.400.550.650.50
UK1.061.201.201.201.201.201.20
5y swaps Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden0.420.801.001.301.331.401.20
US2.863.003.003.103.032.902.70
Eurozone 0.280.450.550.700.800.850.75
Norway1.871.901.902.002.002.001.90
Denmark0.420.600.700.850.951.000.90
UK1.311.401.501.501.501.501.40
10y swaps Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden1.121.401.501.701.731.801.60
US2.913.153.103.103.052.952.90
Eurozone 0.881.101.201.401.501.601.50
Norway2.202.402.402.502.502.502.40
Denmark1.041.301.401.601.701.801.70
UK1.521.601.701.701.701.701.60

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2018-08-08

Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019End 20201 month
EUR/SEK10.4110.009.809.709.639.509.4010.25
USD/SEK9.108.778.528.298.167.927.528.99
GBP/SEK11.6311.3610.8910.6610.5510.3310.2211.65
NOK/SEK1.091.051.041.041.041.021.011.08
DKK/SEK1.401.341.311.301.291.271.261.37
CHF/SEK9.168.628.388.087.967.797.838.91
JPY/SEK8.228.208.128.138.047.927.528.17
CNY/SEK1.331.331.301.281.271.241.211.36
EUR/USD1.141.141.151.171.181.201.251.14
USD/JPY110.70107.00105.00102.00101.50100.00100.00110.00
EUR/GBP0.8950.8800.9000.9100.9130.9200.9200.880
GBP/USD1.281.301.281.291.291.301.361.40
EUR/CHF1.141.161.171.201.211.221.201.15
USD/CNY6.846.606.556.506.456.406.206.60
EUR/DKK7.457.457.467.467.467.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.720.750.760.770.770.790.790.73
USD/DKK6.526.546.496.386.326.225.976.54
GBP/DKK8.338.478.298.208.178.118.118.48
CHF/DKK6.566.426.386.226.176.116.226.49
JPY/DKK5.896.116.186.256.236.225.975.95
EUR/NOK9.539.509.409.309.309.309.309.50
SEK/NOK0.920.950.960.960.970.980.990.93
USD/NOK8.348.338.177.957.887.757.448.33
GBP/NOK10.6510.8010.4410.2210.1810.1110.1110.80
CHF/NOKN/A8.198.037.757.697.627.758.26
JPY/NOK7.537.797.787.797.767.757.447.58

Handelsbanken´s Commodities Forecast

Commodities forecasts updated 2018-08-08

Latest value Q3 2018End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019End 2019
Oil Brent72.9370.0070.0070.0065.0065.00
Iron Ore68.6070.0070.0070.0070.0060.00
Copper6,1557,0007,5007,5007,0006,500
Nickel13,80514,00014,00013,50013,50013,000
Aluminum2,0752,3002,3002,1002,1502,100
Zinc2,5383,1003,1003,2003,0003,000

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2018-08-08

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f
Sweden*2.702.702.902.701.601.701.60
Norway1.801.901.800.901.401.302.00
Norway Mainland1.801.902.502.302.002.001.40
Finland*2.603.302.502.301.901.401.20
Denmark2.201.901.301.701.601.101.00
EMU2.502.302.202.001.801.401.30
USA*2.302.302.702.501.800.601.10
UK1.801.501.501.301.401.301.30
The Netherlands3.203.302.902.802.201.501.00
Japan1.601.601.101.000.800.400.40
China6.906.706.506.306.005.805.70

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2018-08-08

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f
Sweden1.801.801.801.802.102.402.50
Sweden (CPIF)2.002.001.901.801.801.902.00
Norway1.801.802.001.701.501.501.70
Norway (core)1.401.401.401.501.601.501.70
Finland0.700.701.001.401.401.501.50
Denmark1.101.200.901.801.701.801.60
EMU1.501.501.601.801.801.701.70
USA (core)1.501.602.102.002.201.902.00
UK2.702.702.502.501.901.901.90
The Netherlands1.401.401.501.902.602.601.90

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f
Sweden6.706.706.306.706.406.906.60
Norway4.204.203.903.903.503.603.40
Finland8.608.508.107.907.907.807.80
Denmark5.705.804.605.304.105.304.50
EMU9.109.108.408.608.108.308.10
USA4.404.403.803.903.805.004.20
UK4.404.404.304.504.504.704.60
The Netherlands4.904.903.803.903.504.003.80

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR. * Calender Adjusted