Research


Choose type:


SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2019-07-05

Flip phone for more data.

Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25
US (range midpoint)2.3752.1251.8751.6251.6251.6251.625
Eurozone-0.40-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50
Norway1.251.251.251.251.251.251.25
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65
UK 0.750.750.750.750.750.750.75
3m interbank rates Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.06-0.05-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
US2.262.432.181.931.931.931.93
Eurozone-0.38-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40
Norway1.571.651.651.651.651.651.65
Denmark-0.40-0.35-0.35-0.35-0.35-0.30-0.25
2y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.57-0.65-0.65-0.50-0.50-0.45-0.30
US1.801.801.601.501.501.501.65
Eurozone (Germany)-0.77-0.70-0.70-0.60-0.60-0.60-0.60
Norway1.281.301.351.351.351.351.50
Denmark-0.78-0.70-0.65-0.60-0.60-0.60-0.50
Finland-0.73-0.60-0.60-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50
UK0.450.600.600.600.700.700.70
5y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.49-0.45-0.35-0.15-0.15-0.050.10
US1.801.851.801.751.751.801.88
Eurozone (Germany)-0.70-0.55-0.50-0.40-0.40-0.30-0.20
Norway1.311.351.401.401.401.501.60
Denmark-0.66-0.60-0.55-0.50-0.50-0.45-0.35
Finland-0.58-0.40-0.40-0.25-0.25-0.15-0.05
UK0.510.700.700.700.780.780.80
10y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.020.100.100.150.150.250.60
US2.052.052.002.002.002.102.10
Eurozone (Germany)-0.36-0.25-0.25-0.20-0.20-0.100.30
Norway1.451.551.601.601.601.702.00
Denmark-0.29-0.20-0.20-0.15-0.15-0.10-0.05
Finland-0.100.000.000.050.050.150.55
UK0.740.850.850.850.900.901.00
2y swaps Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden-0.06-0.15-0.15-0.05-0.050.050.22
US1.801.901.801.701.701.701.85
Eurozone -0.45-0.30-0.30-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.15
Norway1.841.751.701.701.701.701.65
Denmark-0.34-0.25-0.20-0.15-0.15-0.100.00
UK0.730.720.720.720.820.820.95
5y swaps Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.100.150.250.350.350.450.64
US1.771.951.951.901.901.952.03
Eurozone -0.30-0.10-0.050.050.050.150.30
Norway1.811.801.851.851.851.901.90
Denmark-0.18-0.10-0.050.000.000.050.15
UK0.790.760.760.760.830.831.05
10y swaps Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
Sweden0.530.600.600.650.650.751.16
US1.952.102.052.052.052.152.15
Eurozone 0.110.250.250.300.300.400.80
Norway1.871.902.002.102.102.102.30
Denmark0.220.300.300.350.350.400.45
UK0.950.910.910.910.960.961.25

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2019-04-25

Latest value Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020End 2020End 2021
EUR/SEK10.5210.4010.3010.2810.2510.2010.10
USD/SEK9.379.048.738.578.408.168.08
GBP/SEK11.7211.8211.5711.4211.5211.5911.74
NOK/SEK1.091.091.071.071.071.051.03
DKK/SEK1.411.391.381.381.371.371.35
CHF/SEK9.549.129.049.028.998.878.71
JPY/SEK8.708.538.478.167.857.427.21
CNY/SEK1.361.371.341.331.311.301.26
EUR/USD1.121.151.181.201.221.251.25
USD/JPY107.75106.00103.00105.00107.00110.00112.00
EUR/GBP0.8980.8800.8900.9000.8900.8800.860
GBP/USD1.251.311.331.331.371.421.45
EUR/CHF1.101.141.141.141.141.151.16
USD/CNY6.886.606.506.456.406.306.40
EUR/DKK7.477.477.467.467.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.710.720.720.730.730.730.74
USD/DKK6.656.506.326.226.115.975.97
GBP/DKK8.328.498.388.298.388.488.67
CHF/DKK6.776.556.546.546.546.496.43
JPY/DKK6.186.136.145.925.715.435.33
EUR/NOK9.629.509.609.609.609.709.80
SEK/NOK0.910.910.930.930.940.950.97
USD/NOK8.588.268.148.007.877.767.84
GBP/NOK10.7210.8010.7910.6710.7911.0211.40
CHF/NOK8.738.338.428.428.428.438.45
JPY/NOK7.967.797.907.627.357.057.00

Handelsbanken´s Commodities Forecast

Commodities forecasts updated 2019-04-09

Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Oil Brent62.8170.0065.0065.0065.0060.00
Iron Ore117.0895.0090.0080.0080.0080.00
Copper6,0776,5006,0006,5006,0006,000
Nickel14,65013,00013,00013,00012,50012,500
Aluminum1,8471,9001,9501,9501,9001,850
Zinc2,4243,0002,8502,8502,8002,800

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2019-04-09

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden*2.402.301.501.501.101.601.00N/A
Norway1.401.602.302.101.801.601.70N/A
Norway Mainland2.202.402.602.301.601.401.20N/A
Finland*2.302.501.501.701.001.000.80N/A
Denmark1.400.901.801.501.000.800.80N/A
EMU1.801.801.101.301.001.200.70N/A
USA*2.902.902.102.301.301.301.30N/A
UK1.401.301.201.401.101.301.20N/A
The Netherlands2.502.501.501.601.001.001.10N/A
China6.606.606.006.005.705.705.50N/A

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2019-04-09

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden2.002.002.002.202.202.301.80N/A
Sweden (CPIF)2.102.101.702.001.701.801.70N/A
Norway2.702.802.201.701.701.501.70N/A
Norway (core)1.601.502.301.901.901.801.80N/A
Finland1.101.101.201.301.401.201.40N/A
Denmark0.800.801.301.201.501.601.20N/A
EMU1.801.701.401.701.601.601.40N/A
USA (core)1.901.902.002.002.002.002.00N/A
UK2.502.501.902.001.901.901.90N/A
The Netherlands1.601.602.402.601.401.601.50N/A

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

2018(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)2021f(Previous forecast 2021)
Sweden6.306.306.106.206.306.406.70N/A
Norway3.903.903.603.503.503.503.60N/A
Finland7.407.406.506.906.506.906.80N/A
Denmark5.105.004.904.504.804.905.50N/A
EMU8.208.207.807.807.908.008.20N/A
USA3.903.903.803.704.104.104.40N/A
UK4.104.104.204.204.404.304.50N/A
The Netherlands3.803.903.503.504.104.004.60N/A

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR. * Calender Adjusted