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SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2016-11-30

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Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.500.00
US (range midpoint)0.3750.6250.6250.8750.8751.125
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.30
Norway0.500.500.250.250.250.25
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.55-0.35
UK 0.250.250.250.250.250.25
3m interbank rates Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.62-0.45-0.35-0.30-0.250.25
US0.941.101.101.251.251.30
Eurozone-0.31-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.10
Norway1.141.100.750.750.750.75
Denmark-0.19-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.100.00
2y govt. yields Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.71-0.55-0.45-0.200.100.25
US1.151.101.151.301.351.40
Eurozone (Germany)-0.76-0.60-0.60-0.60-0.50-0.40
Norway0.590.400.300.300.300.30
Denmark-0.61-0.55-0.55-0.55-0.40-0.20
Finland-0.69-0.55-0.55-0.55-0.40-0.25
UK0.150.250.250.300.300.45
5y govt. yields Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.43-0.250.050.100.250.60
US1.891.801.801.851.851.80
Eurozone (Germany)-0.41-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.30-0.20
Norway1.161.000.900.900.900.90
Denmark-0.21-0.20-0.20-0.20-1.000.05
Finland-0.41-0.35-0.35-0.35-0.20-0.05
UK0.630.500.500.500.600.70
10y govt. yields Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.580.550.600.650.750.90
US2.442.202.102.102.101.90
Eurozone (Germany)0.330.100.100.100.200.40
Norway1.691.401.401.401.401.50
Denmark0.420.200.200.200.300.50
Finland0.480.250.250.250.400.70
UK1.471.201.201.201.201.30
2y swaps Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.44-0.25-0.100.150.500.65
US1.341.251.301.451.501.80
Eurozone (Germany)-0.15-0.15-0.15-0.15-0.100.00
Norway1.331.101.001.001.001.00
Denmark0.040.050.050.050.150.20
UK0.670.550.550.550.550.60
5y swaps Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.170.300.550.550.651.00
US1.861.801.801.901.952.20
Eurozone (Germany)0.140.050.050.050.050.15
Norway1.601.301.201.201.201.30
Denmark0.350.200.200.200.300.45
UK1.000.800.800.800.800.85
10y swaps Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden1.061.001.001.051.151.30
US2.272.102.102.152.202.30
Eurozone (Germany)0.740.600.600.600.600.75
Norway2.011.701.701.701.801.90
Denmark0.980.800.800.800.851.00
UK1.441.201.201.201.201.30

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2016-11-30

Latest value Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
EUR/SEK9.809.559.409.309.209.00
USD/SEK9.249.108.958.868.768.18
GBP/SEK11.6610.8510.6810.5710.4510.23
NOK/SEK1.091.061.041.031.031.03
DKK/SEK1.321.281.261.251.231.21
CHF/SEK9.118.938.798.698.448.26
JPY/SEK8.078.278.148.057.977.79
CNY/SEK1.341.281.231.201.171.04
EUR/USD1.061.051.051.051.051.10
USD/JPY114.41110.00110.00110.00110.00105.00
EUR/GBP0.8410.8800.8800.8800.8800.880
GBP/USD1.261.191.191.191.191.25
EUR/CHF1.081.071.071.071.091.09
EUR/DKK7.447.457.457.457.457.46
SEK/DKK0.760.780.790.800.810.83
USD/DKK7.017.107.107.107.106.78
GBP/DKK8.858.478.478.478.478.48
CHF/DKK6.926.966.966.966.836.84
JPY/DKK6.136.456.456.456.456.46
EUR/NOK8.979.009.009.008.908.75
SEK/NOK0.920.940.960.970.970.97
USD/NOK8.468.578.578.578.487.95
GBP/NOK10.6710.2310.2310.2310.119.94
CHF/NOK8.348.418.418.418.178.03
JPY/NOK7.397.797.797.797.717.58
USD/BRL3.473.403.603.703.804.00
USD/RUB63.7462.9061.7061.1061.1058.60
USD/INR68.3669.0069.2569.5070.0071.00
USD/CNY6.897.107.307.407.507.90
EUR/PLN4.474.354.304.254.154.00
EUR/RUB67.6566.0064.8064.2064.2064.50

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2016-11-30

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden3.803.203.202.402.302.102.10
Norway1.600.700.701.201.201.301.30
Norway Mainland1.100.900.901.701.701.901.90
Finland0.201.001.001.001.000.800.80
Denmark1.600.600.600.500.500.500.50
EMU1.901.501.501.101.001.301.30
USA2.601.601.502.402.101.801.70
UK2.202.101.901.300.901.101.30
The Netherlands2.002.001.601.301.001.301.30
Japan0.500.600.500.700.600.600.60
Brazil-3.80-3.30-3.100.701.002.302.30
Russia-3.70-0.80-0.501.101.101.501.50
India7.207.507.507.707.707.708.00
China6.906.606.606.306.305.905.90
Poland3.603.003.303.303.303.503.50

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2016-11-30

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden-0.101.001.001.401.502.102.10
Norway2.103.703.702.302.301.201.20
Finland-0.200.300.300.900.901.201.20
Denmark0.500.300.301.101.101.301.30
EMU0.000.200.301.301.301.301.30
USA (core)1.401.701.602.001.902.102.00
UK0.000.700.702.302.002.502.20
The Netherlands0.200.000.001.001.001.001.00

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden7.406.907.006.906.907.207.20
Norway4.404.804.804.804.804.704.70
Finland9.408.808.808.508.508.408.40
Denmark6.206.106.106.306.306.506.50
EMU10.9010.2010.2010.0010.1010.009.90
USA5.304.904.904.404.604.604.70
UK5.404.905.105.305.305.505.50
The Netherlands6.906.306.305.906.006.006.10

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR.