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SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2016-08-24

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Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.250.50
US (range midpoint)0.3750.6250.6250.6250.6250.8751.125
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.20
Norway0.500.250.000.000.00-0.10-0.25
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.45-0.20
UK 0.250.250.250.250.250.250.25
3m interbank rates Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.51-0.40-0.35-0.25-0.200.000.75
US0.860.850.850.850.851.051.25
Eurozone-0.30-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.25-0.10
Norway1.070.750.450.450.450.350.20
Denmark-0.19-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.100.00
2y govt. yields Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.66-0.45-0.40-0.25-0.250.000.75
US0.780.850.850.850.851.051.20
Eurozone (Germany)-0.67-0.55-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.40-0.30
Norway0.470.400.300.200.200.200.20
Denmark-0.59-0.50-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.30-0.20
Finland-0.61-0.50-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.30-0.20
UK0.090.200.250.250.300.300.45
5y govt. yields Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.50-0.20-0.050.150.200.300.80
US1.171.151.151.151.151.201.30
Eurozone (Germany)-0.55-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.30-0.20
Norway0.900.600.500.400.400.400.60
Denmark-0.42-0.35-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.050.05
Finland-0.51-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.200.00
UK0.200.300.400.400.500.500.75
10y govt. yields Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.220.600.750.800.901.001.10
US1.631.601.601.601.601.601.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.09-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.050.000.00
Norway1.281.101.101.001.001.001.00
Denmark-0.020.100.100.150.150.200.25
Finland0.060.050.050.050.050.150.20
UK0.720.800.900.951.001.001.20
2y swaps Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.45-0.30-0.30-0.050.000.251.05
US1.011.101.101.101.151.401.65
Eurozone (Germany)-0.23-0.15-0.15-0.15-0.15-0.050.00
Norway1.200.800.800.700.700.600.50
Denmark-0.040.050.050.050.050.150.20
UK0.420.500.550.600.700.700.85
5y swaps Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden-0.040.150.250.400.450.651.25
US1.171.201.201.301.401.551.75
Eurozone (Germany)-0.15-0.10-0.05-0.05-0.050.050.20
Norway1.230.900.800.700.700.700.80
Denmark0.100.150.200.200.200.300.45
UK0.480.600.700.700.800.801.00
10y swaps Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
Sweden0.691.051.101.151.251.401.60
US1.441.501.551.701.801.951.95
Eurozone (Germany)0.270.400.450.450.450.450.45
Norway1.481.501.501.401.401.401.40
Denmark0.560.650.700.700.700.750.75
UK0.740.850.951.001.051.051.25

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2016-09-07

Latest value Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017End 2017End 2018
EUR/SEK9.589.259.008.758.758.708.60
USD/SEK8.538.818.578.338.337.917.82
GBP/SEK11.1710.8810.4710.0610.069.8910.36
NOK/SEK1.050.980.970.971.000.990.98
DKK/SEK1.291.241.211.171.171.171.15
CHF/SEK8.828.498.338.108.107.987.89
JPY/SEK8.468.017.797.587.256.886.25
CNY/SEK1.281.301.261.211.211.131.12
EUR/USD1.121.051.051.051.051.101.10
USD/JPY100.81110.00110.00110.00115.00115.00125.00
EUR/GBP0.8580.8500.8600.8700.8700.8800.830
GBP/USD1.311.241.221.211.211.251.33
EUR/CHF1.091.091.081.081.081.091.09
EUR/DKK7.457.447.457.457.457.467.46
SEK/DKK0.780.800.830.850.850.860.87
USD/DKK6.637.097.107.107.106.786.78
GBP/DKK8.698.758.668.568.568.488.99
CHF/DKK6.866.836.906.906.906.846.84
JPY/DKK6.586.446.456.456.175.905.43
EUR/NOK9.119.409.259.008.758.758.75
SEK/NOK0.951.021.031.031.001.011.02
USD/NOK8.108.958.818.578.337.957.95
GBP/NOK10.6111.0610.7610.3410.069.9410.54
CHF/NOK8.388.628.568.338.108.038.03
JPY/NOK8.048.148.017.797.256.926.36
USD/BRL3.203.303.403.603.703.804.00
USD/RUB63.6767.0067.5067.5067.0064.0063.00
USD/INR66.5968.5069.0069.5069.5070.0071.00
USD/CNY6.676.806.806.906.907.007.00
EUR/PLN4.284.304.304.304.254.154.00
EUR/RUB71.5570.4070.9070.9070.4070.4069.30

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2016-08-24

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden3.903.003.302.202.302.102.10
Norway1.60-0.10-0.100.800.801.201.20
Norway Mainland1.000.800.801.401.401.901.90
Finland0.201.001.001.201.200.900.90
Denmark1.000.300.300.500.500.500.50
EMU1.601.501.501.001.501.301.40
USA2.601.501.702.202.001.701.70
UK2.301.601.600.900.901.301.30
Japan0.500.500.500.600.600.600.60
Brazil-3.80-2.70-3.101.200.202.201.50
Russia-3.70-0.40-1.501.301.001.501.50
India7.207.507.507.707.708.008.00
China6.906.606.506.306.306.106.10
Czech Republic4.301.902.502.802.802.602.60
Hungary2.901.802.402.402.602.502.60
Poland3.603.503.503.503.503.303.30
Slovakia3.603.103.103.303.303.003.00

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2016-08-24

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden-0.100.901.001.402.002.102.50
Norway2.103.703.002.301.501.101.10
Finland-0.200.200.801.001.201.401.40
Denmark0.500.401.001.001.401.401.40
EMU0.000.300.301.301.301.301.50
USA (core)1.401.701.701.902.002.002.20
UK0.001.001.301.701.702.302.00

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Unemployment forecasts updated 2016-08-24

20152016f(Previous forecast 2016)2017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)
Sweden7.406.806.906.806.907.307.40
Norway4.404.804.805.005.005.005.00
Finland9.409.309.309.109.108.908.90
Denmark6.205.905.906.306.306.506.50
EMU10.9010.2010.2010.1010.109.909.90
USA5.304.804.804.604.604.704.70
UK5.405.705.706.306.306.506.50

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR.