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SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2017-06-14

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Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.250.000.25
US (range midpoint)1.1251.3751.3751.6251.6251.6250.875
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.20
Norway0.500.500.500.500.500.500.50
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.50-0.35-0.35
UK 0.250.250.250.250.250.250.25
3m interbank rates Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.51-0.35-0.25-0.200.050.250.50
US1.251.501.601.701.701.650.85
Eurozone-0.33-0.25-0.20-0.15-0.050.000.00
Norway0.900.900.900.900.900.850.85
Denmark-0.22-0.15-0.10-0.050.100.200.20
2y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.73-0.45-0.200.000.050.100.10
US1.341.501.501.701.701.650.85
Eurozone (Germany)-0.70-0.60-0.50-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.20
Norway0.570.600.600.600.600.700.70
Denmark-0.53-0.40-0.30-0.100.000.200.20
Finland-0.63-0.50-0.40-0.25-0.100.050.05
UK0.090.120.150.150.200.250.25
5y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.200.050.250.400.450.550.45
US1.721.801.801.901.901.801.30
Eurozone (Germany)-0.46-0.30-0.150.000.100.200.10
Norway0.991.001.101.101.201.201.20
Denmark-0.33-0.150.000.200.300.500.45
Finland-0.28-0.100.050.250.400.500.40
UK0.360.550.600.650.700.750.75
10y govt. yields Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden0.390.600.750.800.900.900.80
US2.132.202.152.102.001.901.70
Eurozone (Germany)0.230.400.500.600.700.700.60
Norway1.501.601.701.701.801.901.90
Denmark0.470.700.800.901.001.000.90
Finland0.540.550.650.801.001.050.90
UK1.011.251.301.351.451.501.50
2y swaps Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.36-0.050.250.450.500.500.50
US1.471.701.701.902.002.151.65
Eurozone -0.190.000.100.150.250.350.35
Norway1.111.151.201.201.251.301.40
Denmark-0.010.150.250.300.400.500.50
UK0.450.620.700.800.851.001.00
5y swaps Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden0.190.450.700.850.901.000.85
US1.762.102.102.102.152.402.00
Eurozone 0.110.300.400.500.600.700.60
Norway1.401.501.601.601.701.701.70
Denmark0.330.500.600.700.800.900.80
UK0.640.851.001.151.201.251.25
10y swaps Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden0.991.251.301.301.351.351.20
US2.072.152.202.202.202.402.50
Eurozone 0.720.901.001.051.101.101.00
Norway1.841.902.002.002.102.102.10
Denmark0.971.151.251.301.351.351.25
UK1.011.251.351.451.551.601.60

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2017-06-14

Latest value Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018End 2018End 2019
EUR/SEK9.769.409.259.209.209.159.15
USD/SEK8.658.558.418.368.217.967.63
GBP/SEK11.0610.6810.5110.4510.4510.4010.40
NOK/SEK1.031.021.021.021.031.051.06
DKK/SEK1.311.261.241.231.231.231.23
CHF/SEK8.958.628.418.368.298.178.17
JPY/SEK7.947.998.018.128.218.208.29
CNY/SEK1.271.241.201.211.191.191.17
EUR/USD1.131.101.101.101.121.151.20
USD/JPY108.94107.00105.00103.00100.0097.0092.00
EUR/GBP0.8820.8800.8800.8800.8800.8800.880
GBP/USD1.281.251.251.251.271.311.36
EUR/CHF1.091.091.101.101.111.121.12
EUR/DKK7.447.447.457.457.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.760.790.810.810.810.820.82
USD/DKK6.596.766.776.776.666.496.22
GBP/DKK8.438.458.478.478.488.488.48
CHF/DKK6.826.836.776.776.726.666.66
JPY/DKK6.056.326.456.586.666.696.76
EUR/NOK9.449.209.109.008.908.758.60
SEK/NOK0.970.980.980.980.970.960.94
USD/NOK8.378.368.278.187.957.617.17
GBP/NOK10.7010.4510.3410.2310.119.949.77
CHF/NOK8.668.448.278.188.027.817.68
JPY/NOK7.687.827.887.947.957.847.79
USD/BRL3.283.103.003.103.203.303.50
USD/RUB57.0156.0055.0054.0055.0057.0061.00
USD/INR64.2765.0065.5066.0066.5067.5069.50
USD/CNY6.796.907.006.906.906.706.50
EUR/PLN4.204.254.304.254.204.154.15
EUR/RUB64.3161.6060.5059.4061.6065.6073.20

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2017-06-14

20162017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)
Sweden2.902.602.502.201.901.701.70
Norway1.001.001.001.001.001.201.20
Norway Mainland0.801.801.601.901.902.002.00
Finland1.502.701.801.501.300.900.90
Denmark1.301.601.401.101.000.500.50
EMU1.701.901.501.201.201.001.10
USA1.602.202.001.802.100.000.30
UK1.801.801.901.301.201.501.40
The Netherlands2.202.302.101.901.801.001.10
Japan1.101.200.700.700.800.100.10
Brazil-3.600.500.302.102.201.901.90
Russia-0.201.201.101.501.502.002.00
India7.907.207.307.507.507.507.50
China6.706.406.406.106.105.805.80
Poland2.703.303.003.203.203.003.00

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2017-06-14

20162017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)
Sweden1.001.701.502.002.302.202.40
Norway3.601.801.701.001.001.101.10
Finland0.401.000.901.301.201.401.30
Denmark0.301.301.201.501.501.501.50
EMU0.201.601.601.401.401.401.30
USA (core)1.701.701.902.002.101.701.70
UK0.702.702.502.502.602.002.10
The Netherlands0.101.601.301.601.501.501.50

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

20162017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)
Sweden6.906.606.806.706.907.007.20
Norway4.704.204.204.104.104.004.00
Finland8.808.208.307.908.007.907.90
Denmark6.205.905.905.905.906.506.50
EMU10.009.409.409.109.209.109.20
USA4.904.404.504.604.605.305.30
UK4.904.705.004.905.205.005.20
The Netherlands6.004.905.104.504.705.105.10

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR.