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SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2019-01-30

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Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden-0.25-0.250.000.000.000.00
US (range midpoint)2.3752.3802.3802.3802.3801.880
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40
Norway1.001.001.251.251.251.25
Denmark-0.65-0.55-0.45-0.45-0.45-0.45
UK 0.750.750.750.750.750.75
3m interbank rates Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden-0.02-0.150.050.100.100.15
US2.612.952.922.902.752.40
Eurozone-0.31-0.25-0.20-0.20-0.25-0.30
Norway1.371.401.651.651.651.65
Denmark-0.32-0.20-0.10-0.10-0.15-0.20
2y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden-0.45-0.30-0.15-0.10-0.10-0.10
US2.312.802.852.752.501.75
Eurozone (Germany)-0.57-0.45-0.35-0.40-0.45-0.60
Norway1.231.401.401.501.501.50
Denmark-0.64-0.30-0.10-0.15-0.20-0.35
Finland-0.51-0.35-0.25-0.30-0.35-0.50
UK0.640.800.800.800.800.80
5y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden-0.200.000.100.100.050.00
US2.243.002.752.552.401.95
Eurozone (Germany)-0.41-0.100.100.05-0.05-0.20
Norway1.351.701.701.701.601.60
Denmark-0.460.100.300.250.150.00
Finland-0.230.100.300.300.200.00
UK0.771.201.201.201.201.15
10y govt. yields Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden0.230.600.700.700.650.50
US2.443.002.852.702.602.25
Eurozone (Germany)-0.030.450.600.550.450.20
Norway1.642.102.202.202.102.10
Denmark0.050.500.700.600.450.20
Finland0.320.700.850.850.750.45
UK0.971.601.601.601.601.50
2y swaps Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden0.080.150.250.350.350.40
US2.393.003.052.952.701.95
Eurozone -0.18-0.050.050.050.00-0.10
Norway1.701.701.801.801.801.80
Denmark-0.100.250.400.400.350.20
UK0.951.201.201.201.201.20
5y swaps Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden0.370.550.650.650.650.70
US2.283.152.902.702.552.10
Eurozone 0.050.400.500.450.400.30
Norway1.792.102.102.102.002.00
Denmark0.150.550.750.750.700.45
UK1.061.601.601.601.601.50
10y swaps Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
Sweden0.841.151.251.251.201.10
US2.413.052.902.752.652.30
Eurozone 0.490.901.101.101.050.90
Norway1.942.402.502.502.402.40
Denmark0.591.201.401.401.301.10
UK1.211.801.901.901.901.80

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2019-02-21

Latest value Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019Q1 2020End 2020
EUR/SEK10.4910.2010.1010.009.809.70
USD/SEK9.308.878.498.338.107.76
GBP/SEK12.2911.7211.4811.1110.6510.54
NOK/SEK1.081.071.071.081.051.04
DKK/SEK1.411.371.351.341.311.30
CHF/SEK9.358.878.718.558.388.22
JPY/SEK8.478.218.018.098.107.76
CNY/SEK1.381.301.271.261.251.23
EUR/USD1.131.151.191.201.211.25
USD/JPY109.75108.00106.00103.00100.00100.00
EUR/GBP0.8540.8700.8800.9000.9200.920
GBP/USD1.321.321.351.331.321.36
EUR/CHF1.121.151.161.171.171.18
USD/CNY6.726.806.706.606.506.30
EUR/DKK7.467.477.477.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.710.730.740.750.760.77
USD/DKK6.616.506.286.226.175.97
GBP/DKK8.748.598.498.298.118.11
CHF/DKK6.656.506.446.386.386.32
JPY/DKK6.036.015.926.046.175.97
EUR/NOK9.689.509.409.309.309.30
SEK/NOK0.920.930.930.930.950.96
USD/NOK8.588.267.907.757.697.44
GBP/NOK11.3410.9210.6810.3310.1110.11
CHF/NOK8.638.268.107.957.957.88
JPY/NOK7.827.657.457.527.697.44

Handelsbanken´s Commodities Forecast

Commodities forecasts updated 2019-01-30

Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019
Oil Brent66.9654.1465.0065.0065.0065.00
Iron Ore83.8178.5970.0070.0070.0060.00
Copper6,3255,9656,0006,0006,0006,500
Nickel12,97510,59512,00012,50012,50013,000
Aluminum1,9031,8701,9501,9501,9501,950
Zinc2,8212,5112,5002,5502,5502,550

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2019-01-30

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)
Sweden*2.402.402.302.601.502.001.601.60
Norway2.002.001.601.602.102.101.601.90
Norway Mainland2.002.002.402.302.302.401.401.50
Finland*2.802.802.502.501.701.901.001.20
Denmark2.302.300.900.701.501.600.800.70
EMU2.502.401.801.901.301.601.201.40
USA*2.202.302.902.902.302.301.301.30
UK1.701.801.301.301.401.401.301.30
The Netherlands3.002.902.502.801.601.801.000.80
Japan1.901.601.101.100.800.800.400.40
China6.806.906.606.506.006.005.705.70

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2019-01-30

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)
Sweden1.801.802.002.002.202.302.302.70
Sweden (CPIF)2.002.002.102.202.002.001.801.90
Norway1.801.802.802.801.701.301.501.50
Norway (core)1.401.401.501.501.901.701.801.70
Finland0.700.701.101.101.301.501.201.60
Denmark1.101.100.800.801.201.501.601.50
EMU1.501.501.701.801.702.001.601.70
USA (core)1.601.601.902.002.002.202.002.00
UK2.702.702.502.502.002.001.901.90
The Netherlands1.301.301.601.602.602.501.601.60

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)
Sweden6.706.706.306.406.206.306.406.50
Norway4.204.203.903.903.503.503.503.40
Finland8.608.607.407.506.907.206.907.10
Denmark5.905.905.004.904.504.504.905.00
EMU9.109.108.208.207.807.908.008.00
USA4.404.403.903.903.703.704.104.10
UK4.404.404.104.104.204.204.304.30
The Netherlands4.904.903.903.903.503.504.004.00

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR. * Calender Adjusted