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SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2018-02-05

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Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.25-0.250.25
US (range midpoint)1.3751.6251.8752.1252.1251.375
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.400.00
Norway0.500.500.500.500.500.50
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.550.00
UK 0.500.500.500.500.500.50
3m interbank rates Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.47-0.40-0.30-0.100.000.40
US1.921.802.002.202.301.70
Eurozone-0.33-0.30-0.30-0.25-0.200.10
Norway0.980.850.850.850.850.85
Denmark-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.25-0.200.20
2y govt. yields Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.41-0.30-0.200.000.100.40
US2.222.302.402.402.101.25
Eurozone (Germany)-0.58-0.60-0.55-0.45-0.35-0.20
Norway0.790.500.500.500.500.50
Denmark-0.56-0.50-0.45-0.35-0.25-0.05
Finland-0.40-0.55-0.50-0.45-0.20-0.05
UK0.690.500.500.500.500.50
5y govt. yields Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden0.280.300.450.700.800.80
US2.652.802.802.602.401.50
Eurozone (Germany)-0.04-0.10-0.050.100.250.25
Norway1.391.101.201.201.201.20
Denmark0.260.100.150.300.550.55
Finland0.19-0.050.050.250.450.50
UK1.040.800.800.900.900.90
10y govt. yields Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden0.880.901.001.301.501.40
US2.923.003.003.102.801.80
Eurozone (Germany)0.750.650.700.901.101.00
Norway2.001.701.801.801.801.80
Denmark0.790.600.650.851.101.00
Finland0.850.750.801.001.351.20
UK1.571.401.401.401.401.40
2y swaps Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden-0.15-0.050.050.200.300.60
US2.472.102.402.502.101.40
Eurozone -0.12-0.10-0.050.000.250.35
Norway1.341.201.201.201.201.20
Denmark0.010.000.050.100.400.60
UK1.020.800.800.800.800.80
5y swaps Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden0.620.600.751.001.101.00
US2.742.302.502.602.301.90
Eurozone 0.490.400.450.650.850.85
Norway1.841.601.701.701.701.70
Denmark0.640.550.600.801.001.00
UK1.401.101.101.201.201.20
10y swaps Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Sweden1.421.351.451.751.901.70
US2.902.402.602.702.602.40
Eurozone 1.151.001.051.301.501.50
Norway2.302.102.202.202.202.20
Denmark1.321.151.201.401.551.55
UK1.671.401.401.501.601.60

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2018-01-18

Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
EUR/SEK9.999.709.609.309.209.30
USD/SEK8.108.438.358.097.677.44
GBP/SEK11.3410.7810.439.899.689.79
NOK/SEK1.031.021.021.001.001.02
DKK/SEK1.341.301.291.251.231.25
CHF/SEK8.668.298.217.887.677.88
JPY/SEK7.567.677.958.017.907.67
CNY/SEK1.281.301.261.231.181.18
EUR/USD1.231.151.151.151.201.25
USD/JPY107.11110.00105.00101.0097.0097.00
EUR/GBP0.8810.9000.9200.9400.9500.950
GBP/USD1.401.281.251.221.261.32
EUR/CHF1.151.171.171.181.201.18
USD/CNY6.346.506.606.606.506.30
EUR/DKK7.457.457.457.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.750.770.780.800.810.80
USD/DKK6.036.486.486.496.225.97
GBP/DKK8.458.288.107.947.857.85
CHF/DKK6.466.376.376.326.226.32
JPY/DKK5.635.896.176.426.416.15
EUR/NOK9.679.509.409.309.209.10
SEK/NOK0.970.980.981.001.000.98
USD/NOK7.848.268.178.097.677.28
GBP/NOK10.9810.5610.229.899.689.58
CHF/NOK8.398.128.037.887.677.71
JPY/NOK7.327.517.788.017.907.51

Handelsbanken´s Commodities Forecast

Commodities forecasts updated 2018-01-18

Latest value Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018End 2018End 2019
Oil Brent65.0250.0050.00N/AN/AN/A
Iron Ore71.9965.0070.00N/AN/AN/A
Copper7,0776,0006,000N/AN/AN/A
Nickel13,52012,00013,000N/AN/AN/A
Aluminum2,1872,1002,200N/AN/AN/A
Zinc3,5512,9002,950N/AN/AN/A

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2018-01-18

20162017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)
Sweden*3.002.702.902.702.401.701.80
Norway1.101.901.500.901.101.301.30
Norway Mainland1.001.902.002.302.102.001.90
Finland*1.903.303.302.302.001.401.10
Denmark2.001.902.201.701.601.100.80
EMU1.802.302.002.001.501.401.20
USA*1.502.302.102.502.000.600.50
UK1.901.801.501.301.301.301.30
The Netherlands2.103.303.102.802.201.500.90
Japan1.001.601.601.000.700.300.10
China6.706.706.706.306.305.805.80

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2018-01-18

20162017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)
Sweden1.001.801.801.801.702.402.10
Sweden (CPIF)1.402.002.001.801.801.901.90
Norway3.601.801.901.701.301.501.40
Norway (core)3.001.401.401.501.501.501.40
Finland0.400.700.801.401.201.501.40
Denmark0.301.201.201.801.701.801.60
EMU0.201.501.501.801.601.701.40
USA (core)1.801.601.602.002.001.901.70
UK0.702.702.602.502.501.901.90
The Netherlands0.301.401.401.902.002.601.90

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

20162017f(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)
Sweden6.906.706.706.706.806.907.00
Norway4.704.204.203.904.003.603.80
Finland8.808.508.507.908.107.807.90
Denmark6.205.805.805.305.505.306.00
EMU10.009.109.208.608.608.308.40
USA4.904.404.403.904.305.005.10
UK4.904.404.404.504.504.704.70
The Netherlands6.004.904.803.904.304.004.60

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR. * Calender Adjusted