Research


Choose type:


SHB Forecast

Yield forecasts updated 2018-09-11

Flip phone for more data.

Handelsbanken's Interest Rate Forecast

Policy rates Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.50-0.50-0.25-0.250.000.250.50
US (range midpoint)1.8752.3752.6252.8802.8802.8802.380
Eurozone-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40-0.20-0.200.00
Norway0.750.751.001.001.251.251.25
Denmark-0.65-0.65-0.65-0.55-0.45-0.350.00
UK 0.750.750.750.750.750.750.75
3m interbank rates Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.38-0.25-0.100.150.250.350.65
US2.352.752.953.203.173.152.65
Eurozone-0.32-0.30-0.30-0.25-0.10-0.050.10
Norway1.121.151.401.401.651.651.65
Denmark-0.31-0.30-0.30-0.20-0.100.050.25
2y govt. yields Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.46-0.35-0.100.150.250.350.40
US2.802.853.003.002.832.651.90
Eurozone (Germany)-0.53-0.50-0.40-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.10
Norway1.101.001.101.151.251.251.25
Denmark-0.53-0.40-0.25-0.150.000.250.25
Finland-0.49-0.40-0.30-0.15-0.050.050.10
UK0.840.850.900.900.900.900.90
5y govt. yields Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden0.110.150.400.600.700.750.70
US2.963.033.083.052.942.832.35
Eurozone (Germany)-0.100.000.150.350.400.450.40
Norway1.581.601.701.701.701.701.60
Denmark-0.080.050.250.450.500.600.55
Finland0.010.150.350.550.650.700.75
UK1.181.201.201.201.201.201.15
10y govt. yields Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden0.640.700.951.201.301.301.20
US3.083.103.053.002.952.902.70
Eurozone (Germany)0.490.550.801.001.051.000.90
Norway1.952.102.202.202.202.102.00
Denmark0.410.550.851.101.151.151.00
Finland0.680.801.001.301.351.351.20
UK1.611.601.601.601.601.601.50
2y swaps Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden-0.040.100.350.600.700.750.80
US2.953.103.253.253.082.902.15
Eurozone -0.130.000.050.200.250.300.30
Norway1.561.501.601.601.601.601.50
Denmark-0.010.100.150.350.450.550.55
UK1.161.201.201.201.201.201.20
5y swaps Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden0.580.700.951.151.201.251.20
US3.053.133.183.153.042.932.45
Eurozone 0.360.500.650.800.850.850.80
Norway2.011.902.002.002.002.001.90
Denmark0.480.600.800.951.001.000.95
UK1.461.501.501.501.501.501.40
10y swaps Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
Sweden1.251.301.551.851.851.851.75
US3.113.153.103.053.002.952.75
Eurozone 0.981.101.301.501.551.451.35
Norway2.332.402.502.502.502.502.40
Denmark1.101.301.401.701.751.651.60
UK1.681.701.701.701.701.701.60

Handelsbanken´s FX Forecast

FX forecasts updated 2018-09-20

Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019End 2020
EUR/SEK10.3610.259.809.609.559.509.40
USD/SEK8.888.918.388.148.037.927.52
GBP/SEK11.6811.3910.7710.5110.3810.3310.22
NOK/SEK1.091.091.051.031.031.021.01
DKK/SEK1.391.371.311.291.281.271.26
CHF/SEK9.188.918.458.218.097.987.97
JPY/SEK7.918.498.218.027.957.927.52
CNY/SEK1.301.331.271.251.241.241.21
EUR/USD1.171.151.171.181.191.201.25
USD/JPY112.33105.00102.00101.50101.00100.00100.00
EUR/GBP0.8870.9000.9100.9130.9200.9200.920
GBP/USD1.321.281.291.291.291.301.36
EUR/CHF1.131.151.161.171.181.191.18
USD/CNY6.856.706.606.506.456.406.20
EUR/DKK7.467.467.467.467.467.467.46
SEK/DKK0.720.730.760.780.780.790.79
USD/DKK6.396.496.386.326.276.225.97
GBP/DKK8.418.298.208.178.118.118.11
CHF/DKK6.616.496.436.386.326.276.32
JPY/DKK5.696.186.256.236.216.225.97
EUR/NOK9.529.409.309.309.309.309.30
SEK/NOK0.920.920.950.970.970.980.99
USD/NOK8.168.177.957.887.827.757.44
GBP/NOK10.7310.4410.2210.1810.1110.1110.11
CHF/NOKN/A8.178.027.957.887.827.88
JPY/NOK7.267.787.797.767.747.757.44

Handelsbanken´s Commodities Forecast

Commodities forecasts updated 2018-08-22

Latest value End 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019End 2019
Oil Brent79.2970.0070.0070.0065.0065.00
Iron Ore68.6570.0070.0070.0070.0060.00
Copper6,0877,0007,5007,5007,0006,500
Nickel12,49014,00014,00013,50013,50013,000
Aluminum2,0302,3002,3002,1002,1502,100
Zinc2,4293,1003,1003,2003,0003,000

Handelsbanken's Real GDP Forecast

GDP forecasts updated 2018-08-22

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)
Sweden*2.502.703.102.901.801.601.701.60
Norway1.901.901.901.901.301.302.002.00
Norway Mainland1.901.902.502.502.002.001.401.40
Finland*2.802.602.502.501.901.901.201.20
Denmark2.302.200.801.301.701.600.901.00
EMU2.60N/A2.102.201.801.801.301.30
USA*2.302.302.802.702.001.801.101.10
UK1.801.501.301.501.401.401.301.30
The Netherlands3.003.202.702.901.902.200.901.00
Japan1.601.601.101.100.800.800.400.40
China6.906.906.506.506.006.005.705.70

Handelsbanken's Inflation Forecast

Inflation forecasts updated 2018-08-22

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)
Sweden1.801.801.901.802.202.102.602.50
Sweden (CPIF)2.002.002.101.902.001.802.002.00
Norway1.801.802.502.501.301.301.701.70
Norway (core)1.401.401.401.401.601.601.701.70
Finland0.700.701.101.001.401.401.501.50
Denmark1.101.101.000.901.701.701.601.60
EMU1.50N/A1.701.601.801.801.701.70
USA (core)1.601.602.002.102.202.202.002.00
UK2.702.702.402.501.901.901.901.90
The Netherlands1.301.401.701.502.602.601.701.90

Handelsbanken's Unemployment Forecast

Handelsbanken Unemployment Forecast

2017(Previous forecast 2017)2018f(Previous forecast 2018)2019f(Previous forecast 2019)2020f(Previous forecast 2020)
Sweden6.706.706.106.306.106.406.306.60
Norway4.204.203.803.803.503.503.403.40
Finland8.608.607.608.107.407.907.307.80
Denmark5.705.704.804.604.504.104.804.50
EMU9.10N/A8.308.408.008.108.008.10
USA4.404.403.903.803.803.804.204.20
UK4.404.404.204.304.404.504.504.60
The Netherlands4.904.903.803.803.603.503.903.80

3M rates - Sweden:STIBOR, US:LIBOR, Eurozone: EURIBOR, Norway: NIBOR, Denmark: CIBOR. * Calender Adjusted