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Markkinakatsaus — Viikko 25/2018

• Kaupan jännitteistä lisähuolta Kiinan kasvunäkymille

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Norway — Norges Bank to stick with March strategy

In March, Norges Bank indicated that the policy rate would be lifted by September this year. Beyond that, the central bank expected six more rate increases by the end of 2021. Since March, inflation has once again disappointed; in isolation, this suggests a lower policy rate path. On the other hand, the real economy is showing few signs of faltering and the oil price and housing market have been stronger than expected. We believe Norges Bank will present a forecast for the policy rate that is little changed from March, still indicating that the first rate increase will come in September.

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

FX Pilot — Inflation print next obstacle for the SEK

• Markets expect rate hike from the Fed
• Higher inflation reading in the eurozone
• Reduced political risk behind yen weakness
In focus: Norges Bank to press ahead with a rate hike in September

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Swedish Rate Wrap — Energy fuels interest rate hikes

Following a period with all eyes on the Italian crisis, attention is now turning toward the far north and the ECB meeting in Riga. Italy could actually induce a hastier decision on tapering the QE programme. We repeat our belief that the programme will come to an end in December this year.

For the Riksbank, most indications suggest a rate hike before year-end, in line with the repo rate path. Inflation outcomes in CPIF terms will be substantially higher than Riksbank forecasts, given current energy prices. Even adjusted for that factor, we believe inflation will land at or above the Riksbank's path, suggesting that the market will gradually price in a greater likelihood of a rate hike. Higher inflation should result in a widening of Swedish bond yield spreads relative to Germany.

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Markkinakatsaus — Viikko 24/2018

• Keskuspankit sijoittajien luupin alla

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se