With the exception of agriculture, gold and silver, we expect commodities to be range bound close to a mid-cycle equilibrium price. We retain our theme with better prospects for base metals and energy than for precious metals and agricultural products.
We are lowering the upside for base metals after China's new leaders have chosen to focus on structural problems and are no longer prioritising short-term growth.
Electricity prices are under pressure and we are lowering the upside in our belief in stronger prices for winter electricity.
The approaching global harvest will push prices down for corn and wheat by 15-20 per cent.
The Fed's imminent downscaling of QE will continue to weigh heavily on gold and silver.
Med undantag för jordbruk, guld och silver förväntar vi oss att råvarorna kommer fortsätta vara rang-handlade nära mitt-cykel jämviktspris. Vi behåller vårt tema med bättre utsikter för basmetaller och energi än ädelmetaller och jordbruksprodukter
Vi sänker uppsidan för basmetaller efter att Kinas nya ledare valt att fokusera på strukturella problem och inte längre värnar om kortsiktig tillväxt.
Elpriset är under press och vi sänker uppsidan i vår tro på starkare priser för vinterel.
Den stundande globala skörden kommer driva ner priserna på majs och vete med 15-20%
Feds kommande nedskalning av QE kommer fortsätta väga tungt för guld och silver
US: Do not rule out the Fed tapering asset purchases as early as June. Core CPI will likely remain subdued, while the housing market is set to pick up further
Sweden: Positive rebounds forecast in June NIER barometers; continued increase forecast for unemployment rate
Norway: Norges Bank set to lower interest rate path
Eurozone: Slight decline expected in June PMI
China: HSBC flash PMI likely still below 50
China: Property prices should continue to moderate
We expect the FOMC to taper asset purchases either at the June or September meeting. In our view, the FOMC at its June meeting will either taper asset purchasing or explicitly signal (in its post-meeting statement, for example) that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases is coming soon.
- Negative on risk sentiment
- Neutral on EUR/USD
- We turn neutral on EUR/SEK after being krona bears