• Miksi USA:n dollari on heikentynyt maaliskuussa
• Riksbanken luopunee määräelvytyksestä kesäkuussa
Eurozone: Headline inflation has peaked
Sweden: We expect retail sales growth to accelerate
Norway: Retail spending still subdued
- Riksbank: Expecting a scheduled tightening in July
- EURSEK: Oil price to hold back inflation
- EURNOK: Uncertainty to hold back the NOK
The global economic climate continues to be strong. We see evidence of this in the US where most macro data is exceeding market expectations. The recent harvest of data from China confirms a strong start to the year. The trend in global inflation is also positive. Previous monetary policy stimulus measures are feeding into the economy and contributing to the improvement that we are now seeing. This forms the basis of increasing long yields.
Inflation is partly driven by earlier energy price rises. The price of oil falling to USD 40/barrel by year-end represents a risk to our view of inflation and long yields. Despite this, we still believe that interest rates will continue to rise. We address this on page 3.
• Fedillä optimistinen arvio tulevista koronnostoista
• OPECin tuotantorajoitussopu menettänyt tehoaan