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FX Pilot — Not a cloud in the euro’s summer sky

- EURUSD: All set for a more hawkish ECB
- EURSEK: Good risk/reward in hawkish surprise from the Riksbank
- Our trades of the year: A recap at the midpoint

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Opsvinget ved at være slut — Makroprognosen Juni 2017

Opsvinget ved at være slut

• USA på vej mod recession i 2019
• Europa stærkere i år, opbremsning næste år
• Det afdæmpede danske opsving fortsætter året ud
• Renterne topper på et lavt niveau

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Markkinakatsaus — Viikko 25/2017

• Katsauksia euroalueen, USA:n ja Kiinan talouksiin
• Fed aloittaa tänä vuonna taseensa pienentämisen

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Balance sheet reduction and financial markets

In June, the Fed announced a detailed plan for balance sheet reduction, before it had assessed the amount of securities needed to carry out policy in the future. The amount depends on monetary regime. The choice has not yet been made. The Fed Chair, Yellen, does not believe that the reduction would affect financial conditions much. Yellen's intention is for the reduction to run quietly in the background for years, while monetary policy is operated through adjustments of the Fed funds rate. In our view, Yellen is a little too optimistic.

Petter Lundvik, Senior Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se