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Results: listing 1 - 6 of 344 for “ECB”

EMU Comment — Compromised stimulus package is no 'big bazooka'

  1. 10 basis points rate cut, reinforced forward guidance
  2. Smaller but open-ended quantitative easing returns in Q4, tiering introduced, changes to TLTRO-III
  3. Compromise compromises the expected effect of the new package

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment Eurozone — ECB: Curb your enthusiasm

Fundamentals indicate a need for more rate cuts, but that is hampered by concerns about negative rates. Forward guidance and tiering are unlikely to make much of a difference. Another round of QE requires a shift to relatively riskier assets, and faces significant external and internal obstacles. Built-up market disappointments have reached levels not seen since past crisis episodes. The ECB's policy limitations and lack of fiscal support mean the inflation target is unlikely to be met by the end of 2021.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Eurozone inflation stuck at 1%

  1. Eurozone inflation stuck at 1%
  2. Suppressed inflation in France, Germany and, particularly, Italy
  3. ECB set to push for fresh stimulus amid internal disagreements

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |

Global Macro Comment — US and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — ECB in mild dovish shift, with TLTRO III less generous than last round

  1. ECB in mild dovish shift, with TLTRO III less generous than last round
  2. Draghi warns eurozone risks tilted to the downside; tiering unlikely without further guidance changes
  3. Inflation outlook pressures an ECB expecting extensive personnel changes

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Inflation higher than expected; but mind the Easter effect

  1. Core inflation back up at a six-month high
  2. Another source of comfort for the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |