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Results: listing 1 - 6 of 34 for “Eurozone”

EMU Comment — PMI stabilises in April

  1. PMI Composite surprised on the upside
  2. German and French service confidence rose
  3. Supports a steady ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

FX Comment — We revise our EURUSD forecast

  1. We revise our EURUSD forecast
  2. The tax reform dominates the short picture
  3. We forecast a slightly stronger dollar in the coming year

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

EMU Comment — ECB on the dovish side

  1. ECB kept all key interest unchanged
  2. Asset purchases will continue as planned, and no formal discussions on tapering have taken place
  3. Forward guidance kept unchanged as inflation stays subdued

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

Macro comment — Macron wins, clearing all fears of Frexit

  1. France will stay in the EU
  2. Difficult task awaits Macron
  3. Only a mild positive market reaction expected

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Macro Comment — Macron wins, clearing all fears of Frexit

• France will stay in the EU
• Difficult task awaits Macron
• Only a mild positive market reaction expected

France will stay in the EU
Emmanuel Macron scored a landslide victory against Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election on Sunday, May 5, in line with expectations. The important message to the rest of the EU and the eurozone is that there is no risk of France exiting either of the two over the nearest five years, in our view. Macron is a strong EU advocate and wants a tighter union.

Difficult task awaits Macron
Macron is going from an easy victory to something much more challenging, approaching the first round of the parliamentary vote on June 11. The latest opinion poll shows that Macron’s party, En Marche!, will become the largest party in the National Assembly but will not enjoy an absolute majority. However, it is important to treat a poll released so early with caution: parliamentary campaigns are only just beginning, and the result of the presidential race is also likely to have an impact. Macron has promised much-needed reforms in the labour market and cuts in public sector spending. Many French politicians have tried to do this before him but have failed due to a powerful public sector, labour unions and parliamentary opposition.

Only a mild positive reaction expected
Financial markets priced out almost all of the probability of a Le Pen victory following the first round of elections in April. Consequently, we expect only a mild positive reaction as markets reopen.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Macro comment — Macron in pole position after the first round

  1. Macron big favourite in round two
  2. Tricky presidency to come
  3. Euro rallies as an initial reaction

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |