- Inflation below Riksbank forecast for a second consecutive month
- Not in tune with the Riksbank’s view, unforgiving details
- With disappointing inflation, preference for a united board tips the scales to a February hike
- CPI-ATE at 2.2 percent in November, against expectations of 1.9 percent
- The near-term momentum has been greater than anticipated by Norges Bank
- Notwithstanding increasing global uncertainties, Norges Bank will stick to its plan of hiking the policy rate twice in 2019
- Forbrugerpriserne, der kommer mandag, ventes at være faldet med 0,4% m/m i september, som trækker inflationen ned fra 0,8% til 0,7%
- Mandagens tal for vareeksporten ventes at vise en stigning i omegnen af 1% m/m i oktober. Importen ventes dog at stige mere, hvormed overskuddet på handelsbalancen ses at aftage fra 5,3 til 5,0 mia. kr.
- Overskuddet på betalingsbalancen ventes også at være faldet fra 12,3 til 11,5 mia. kr. i oktober
- CPI-ATE expected at 1.8 percent in November, up from 1.6 percent in October; driven by a base effect
- Matching Norges Bank's estimate
- Even a slight surprise to the upside would be neutral to the key policy rate path
- Inflation stays below the Riksbank forecast...
- ...But outlook for 2019 remains positive, so will it matter?
- More risks than usual to this November-CPI?
- The labour market improvement gearing down
- Core inflation slowed
- ECB locked-in on normalisation