- Inflation well short of expectations
- But volatile components explain most of our forecast error - partly temporary?
- For the time being, we stick to our view of decent inflation developments in 2019
- Inflation to pick up, but less than Riksbank expects
- Is the yearly CPI basket change effect a risk to the Riksbank's 2019 outlook?
- Some January risks more temporary in nature, and overall we are positive on 2019 inflation
- CPI-ATE unchanged in January, at 2.1 pct
- We and consensus expected 2.3 pct
- Norges Bank had 2.16 pct; deviation not significant (rate hike March)
- CPI-ATE expected at 2.3 percent in January, up from 2.1 percent in December
- Norges Bank has forecast 2.16 percent
- Adds to our expectation of a rate hike in March
- The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.75 percent; we also expect a neutral statement
- We maintain our call that NB will hike again in March
- Other upcoming data: We expect unemployment to continue to level out; still solid manufacturing signals
- CPI and core CPI of 2.1% and 1.9% respectively
- Inflation just above the 2% target
- Bank of England on the sidelines