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Results: listing 1 - 6 of 84 for “Oil”

Fast Comment Norway — GDP in Q2 and the oil and gas survey for Q3 in line with Norges Bank's outlook

  1. Mainland GDP at 0.5 percent in Q2, matching our expectation and consensus
  2. Oil and gas investment survey for Q3 indicates high growth in 2019, but numbers inflated by base effects
  3. Today’s figures support Norges Bank’s outlook for the real economy, we believe

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Investment survey oil and gas Q3

  1. Investment survey oil and gas Q3 due next Thursday
  2. More PDOs in the pipeline
  3. Outlook for petroleum investments in line with Norges Bank, we believe

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Petroleum investment expectations for 2018-19, well enough in line with Norges Bank's expectation

  1. Estimate for petroleum investment in 2018 down to 1.3% from 7.1% in Q1 survey
  2. Petroleum investment in 2019 seen up 8 percent
  3. Estimates well enough in line with Norges Bank’s expectation

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Investment survey, retail sales, credit growth, registered unemployment

  1. Petroleum investment: fFirst point-estimate given for 2019
  2. Household debt growth cooling; retail spending probably increased further in April
  3. Further downtrend in registered unemployment

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Commodity Bulletin — Politics take over commodities market

Trump, Xi and MBS
Following a two-year rise in prices, fully in line with the global economic expansion, with the strongest synchronised growth in years, politics now appear to be taking over. President Trump is introducing tariffs on steel and aluminium in the world's strongest economy. Xi Jinping will likely be president for the rest of his life, leaving him free to pursue his priorities in what is the world's largest producer and consumer of commodities. Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has outmanoeuvred his opponents in Riyadh and is ruling OPEC with an iron fist. If the economic climate drove commodities to this point, politics will have a greater influence moving forward.

China's decline deferred
Although the expectations of China's performance in 2018 have been low, the data has proved a pleasant surprise so far. There was uncertainty regarding the growth target since Xi has focused less on this lately. However, the growth target of "around 6.5%," remains in place, compared with the target of "around 6.5% or higher if possible" that was stated in 2017. The significance of the growth target has been played down, but the fact that it remains means that China will continue to steer its economy toward this target moving forward, probably until 2020, we believe.

OPEC gets a free ride due to Venezuela's collapse
Adherence to the agreement on production curbs by OPEC rose to 147% in February, the highest since the agreement was introduced in January 2017. The crisis in Venezuela is accelerating and reducing oil production so much that the oil market may approach a market balance deficit during the year. Venezuela is the reason that OPEC's adherence is nearly 50% higher than agreed. Even though we still think the oil price is on its way down, we raise our forecast for year-end 2018 from USD 50 to USD 55.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Råvaruplanket — Politiken tar över råvarumarknaden

Trump, Xi och MBS
Efter två års prisuppgångar på råvaror, helt i linje med den globala konjunkturens frammarsch med den starkaste, synkroniserade tillväxten på många år, ser nu politiken ut att ta över. Trump inför tullar på stål och aluminium i världens största ekonomi. Xi Jinping har utropats till president för resten av sitt liv i världens största producent och konsument av råvaror. Kronprins Mohammed Bin Salman har utmanövrerat sina motståndare i Riyad och styr OPEC med järnhand. Om konjunkturen drev råvarorna hit har politiken större inflytande framöver.

Kinas nedgång rullas fram
Förväntningarna på Kina för 2018 har varit lågt ställda, hittills har dock data överraskat positivt. Det fanns en osäkerhet kring tillväxtmålet då Xi lagt mindre fokus på det under senare tid. Tillväxtmålet ligger dock kvar på "omkring 6,5" att jämföra med "omkring 6,5% eller högre om möjligt" som gällde 2017. Tillväxtmålets betydelse har ändå spelats ner men det faktum att det finns kvar gör att Kina kommer fortsätta styra ekonomin mot målet framöver, antagligen fram till 2020.

OPEC åker gratis på Venezuelas kollaps
OPEC:s genomförandegrad med avtalet om att sänka produktionen steg till 147% i februari, högsta sedan avtalet inleddes januari 2017. Krisen i Venezuela accelererar och minskar oljeproduktionen så pass mycket att oljemarknaden kan gå mot underskott i marknadsbalansen under året. Venezuela ligger bakom att OPECs genomförandegrad är nästan 50% högre än avtalat. Vi tror fortfarande att oljepriset är på väg ner men höjer vår tro vid slutet av 2018 från USD 50 till USD 55.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se