- Danish voters move to the left
- Does not change the overall outlook for the economy
- Difficult negotiations ahead
- A Brexit hardliner will probably take over as PM, most likely Boris Johnson
- With a Brexit hardliner, the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit increases, in our view
- We adjust our pound forecast accordingly and expect a weaker pound ahead
- Social Democrats win, but by a very thin margin
- Protest votes went to the Finns Party
- Process of forming a government likely to be difficult
- Theresa May will stay on, as 200 MPs voted for her, but will step down before 2022 election
- All Brexit outcomes still on the table, ranging from reversing Brexit to a no-deal Brexit
- Uncertainty will linger for a long time yet, dampening economic activity and weighing on the pound
- Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of up to USD 60bn on Chinese imports
- Markets reacted with broad-based significant risk aversion
- Chinese retaliation might be on the cards
Today's speech unlikely to provide the clarity that Brussels is asking forPrime Minister May will give a speech on the UK’s Brexit vision today (expected at 13:30 GMT). Some of the content has already been leaked to the media, and it appears that the speech is unlikely to provide the clarity that Brussels is asking for. May’s problem is trying to reach out to Brussels but at the same time please both the very vocal Brexiteers in her own cabinet and the Remainers in her own party who are threatening to team up with Labour in coming votes in Parliament.