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Results: listing 19 - 24 of 190 for “Fiscal Policy”

Swedish Rate Wrap — Housing market is calling the tune

The fall in house prices during the autumn has caused concern on the market that Sweden may be poised for a trend similar to that seen in Denmark ten years ago. We make comparisons, and conclude that there are similarities, but that the differences are decisive, particularly the current absence of an interest rate upturn, and thus rising housing costs. In addition, the largest drop in prices in Denmark came in conjunction with the financial crisis. In the absence of a sharp upturn in mortgage rates or an external shock, a major fall in Swedish house prices would appear less likely. In addition, the continuing strength of data should reduce the concern about a broader slowdown in the Swedish economy.

For the Riksbank, the housing market trend may mean slightly more difficult terrain to manoeuvre in. We believe this supports the line of wait-and-see before making a change in monetary policy, despite the strong economy and an inflation rate close to the target.

Concern about house prices has also rubbed off on slightly higher spreads for Swedish covered bonds. With interest rates remaining low and tight spreads in the equivalent EUR-denominated instruments, we continue to see value in covered bonds.

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Key takeaways from the Autumn Budget

  1. GDP growth forecast revised down, now well in line with our expectations
  2. Fiscal policy somewhat more expansionary than expected, but no breach of fiscal rules
  3. Fiscal policy still contractionary, but less so than assumed in March

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview UK Autumn Budget

  1. No big changes - fiscal policy to continue to act as a drag on GDP growth
  2. Pushed from both sides, but not much room for manoeuvre

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Ränterullen — Elefanten tvingar Riksbanken vänta längre

Veckans besked från såväl Riksbanken och ECB gav en hel del att tänka på. Ur ett Riksbanksperspektiv är det främst ECB som stökar till det. ECB:s QE-program pågår åtminstone till september 2018, och mycket möjligt längre än så. Det ökar sannolikheten för att Riksbanken förlänger QE in i 2018. Vårt huvudscenario är emellertid att Riksbanken i stället väljer att skjuta på räntebanan och signalera en senare höjning jämfört med idag. Vår syn är att Riksbanken slutligen kommer höja räntan i september 2018. 

Talousennuste — Suomi kuroo kiinni menetettyä tuotantoaan

Maailmantalous: Moottori hyrrää, mutta horisontissa pilviä
• Euroalue: Elpyminen jatkuu - silti EKP kiristää vain maltillisesti
• Suomi kuroo kiinni menetettyä tuotantoaan
• Teema-artikkeli: Keskuspankit päättämässä määräelvytystään

Tiina Helenius, Chief Economist Finland | tihe01@handelsbanken.se

Macro Forecast Norway — Look out for speed bumps

• Housing market has buoyed GDP growth, but will soon act as a drag
• Slack in the labour market will contribute to moderate wage growth
• Weakening growth globally to weigh on the Norwegian economy from 2019

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no