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Results: listing 25 - 30 of 30 for “USD/SEK”

Macro Comment US — CBO’s budget forecast a fiscal anchor

President Obama's overriding priority seems to be re-election in 2012, not taking the lead on budget disci-pline by introducing harsh austerity measures. The CBO's baseline projection shows that there exists a credible sustainable fiscal policy, which probably works as a default alternative, increasing market confi-dence. However, the debate over the 2012 budget has hardly started. Presently, the focus is on the 2011 budget and the risk of a shutdown of the federal government.

Market Participant Survey — Majority see three Riksbank hikes in a row

The Riksbank expected to hike rates further
- All fixed income investors see another hike at the Riksbank's December meeting while a clear majority also anticipate a hike in February. Expectations of a hike in April have come up compared to last month's survey and a majority now see three hikes in a row.
- The Riksbank is widely expected to leave the repo rate path unchanged at the meeting next week, with 90% of fixed income investors anticipating this outcome.
- Positioning among fixed income investors remains tilted towards higher bond yields, but to a somewhat lesser extent than last month. 
- Investors remain with significant overweight positions in mortgage bonds. 
- Investors have become less bullish on the SEK versus EUR.  29% were positioned for a lower EURSEK, which compared to 42% last month. 

Global macro forecast — Too hot and too cold

- US: Soft recovery and strong business investment
- Europe: Diverging Europe
- Sweden: Fall deep, fly high

FX Pilot — Lucia will not illuminate markets

- Negative on risk ahead of year-end
- Portugal, Spain, China to weigh on sentiment
- More short-term USD strength, strong SEK

Market Participant Survey — Almost half see high risk of Swedish housing bubble

The Riksbank expected to hike rates further
- All fixed income investors see another hike at the Riksbank's December meeting, while a clear majority also expect a hike in February. Thereafter, the picture is more split. 
- Despite the reduction in the Riksbank's rate path since our last Market Participant Survey, fixed income investors have raised their views on the peak in the repo rate in this cycle from 2.68% to 2.84%. This may reflect a more optimistic view on global economic developments, although it is still below the Riksbank's peak of 3.4%. 
- Positioning among fixed income investors have been shifted further towards higher bond yields with 52% positioned for this.
- Investors continue to have overweight positions in mortgage bonds but their views have become less optimistic on the asset class as only 46% expect spreads to tighten. 
- Investors have become less bullish on the SEK versus EUR, with 52% expecting a lower EUR/SEK. 39% see a lower USD/SEK. However, investors have, as usual, a tilt toward a stronger SEK. 
- Our special question in this month's survey referred to the Swedish housing market. 46% of investors see a high risk that a housing bubble is building. Among fixed income investors, the share was 48% while FX investors were marginally less worried at 43%. Although a majority see a low risk of a housing bubble, we regard these numbers as quite high.

FX Comment — Higher ECB rates are more likely than you think

  1. Interest rates are important for EUR/USD
  2. Previous EUR weakness supports euro area outperformance well into 2011
  3. Better growth and a better labour market situation imply higher euro area interest rates, boosting the EUR/USD