Research


Choose type:


Speakers´ corner

Content in this Forum is not to be considered investment advice.

Vad säger Riksbankens räntebana

att Frasare i fronten skall ligga?

Givet dagens fixingspreadar

Comments (0)

Latest posts

Underkända budgetar

  • EMU: Fem länder, däribland Frankrike och Italien, väntas få budgeten underkänd av EU-kommissionen idag
  • ECB: Oklara källor till ryktet om att ECB överväger köp av företagsobligationer

The Riksbank expected to cut the policy rate

Swedish September CPI is another shock for the Riksbank, which is in the process of preparing the October monetary policy report (released in conjunction with the rate decision on Oct 28). Inflation as measured by CPIF landed 0.36 percentage points below the Riksbank’s forecast, the biggest downside deviation since October 2013. As the Riksbank has signaled zero tolerance for downside surprised in inflation, the board will have no choice but to respond with lowering rates at the October meeting. Adding to the case for a rate cut is the fact that the ECB has been more active since the Riksbank’s September meeting and that the outlook for the global economy has weakened. Some board members seem reluctant to move all the way to zero with the repo rate. We think there is good reason to cut by a full 25bp as this would send a stronger signal that the Riksbank is ready to do what it takes to boost inflation. Currently, the important transmission mechanism is the SEK and a smaller cut risks being a disappointment and hence the effect on the SEK may be limited or non-existent. The size is dependent on how comfortable board members are with going all the way to zero. With Karolina Ekholm - the prime advocate of lower rates - no longer with the board, there is probably a slightly bigger probability of the Riksbank stopping at 5bp, i.e. in line with the ECB. The Riksbank – like the ECB – will remind markets that there are other tools in the toolbox if needed to counter lower-than-expected inflation. However, we expect no announcement of extraordinary policy measures in October.

BNP-tillväxten för Kina sänks

  • Världsbanken: sänker BNP-tillväxten för Kina (till 7,4% från 7,2% i år och och till 7,2% från 7,5% för nästa år)
  • Brasiliens presidentval: Miljöaktivisten Silva oväntat utslagen i första omgången. Sittande president Rouseff möter nu högerpartiets kandidat Neves i den andra omgången
  • Frankrike: Budgeten, med ett underskott på 4,3%, förväntas bli avvisad av kommissionen
  • Bitcoin: 20% ner under helgen. 50% ner sedan i början av sommaren
  • Sverige: Finansmarknadsminister Per Bolund vill gå försiktigt fram med nya regler för bolån. Bred överenskommelse eftersträvas