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Vad säger Riksbankens räntebana

att Frasare i fronten skall ligga?

Givet dagens fixingspreadar

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QE expansion by the Riksbank

Riksbank: Decision basically in line with our expectations. QE expanded into H2 by SEK 45bn (we expected 50bn). 30bn in nominal bonds and 15bn in linkers. Skingsley opposed the QE expansion. Rate forecast unchanged and GDP and inflation forecasts little changed. The decision should by somewhat bullish for Swedish bonds as analysts were split on more QE.

We expect more QE from the Riksbanken

Since February meeting:

  • Inflation higher than expected + upward trend in inflation expectations
  • More dovish Fed
  • Financial market volatility has decreased

Repo rate

  • SHB: unchanged rate at -0.50%
  • Consensus: unchanged at -0.50%

Bond purchases

  • SHB: +50 bn in H2 2016 (incl. index-linked bonds)
  • Consensus: 50/50

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