Vad säger Riksbankens räntebana
att Frasare i fronten skall ligga?
Givet dagens fixingspreadar
Tighter than expected. New mortgage holders are to repay their mortgages down to 50% LTV. Annual repayments of at least 2% will first be made on loans down to 70% LTV. After that at least 1% is to be repaid annually down to 50% LTV. The implementation seems to take longer than expected as they will pinpoint details over the next couple of months. Conclusion: While we need to look at detail and exceptions, this seems to be a bigger threat to consumption growth next year than expected.
A real wild card would be that Per Bolund, Minister for Financial Markets, opens up for change of the deduction of mortgage costs after the meeting tomorrow. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson has previously said that this would need broad parliamentary backing, something which is hard to square with the current combative environment in the Riksdag. It would also be a gigantic gamble for the minority government already under pressure after less-than-popular decisions on e.g. infrastructure. If it nevertheless happens it should push rate hikes even further into the future as households would face higher after-tax mortgage rates.
The council for Financial Stability (including Ministry of Finance, Riksbank, National Debt Office, FSA) will meet tomorrow between 1000-1200 (CET). Thereafter, Per Bolund, Minister for Financial Markets, will be available to media. However, he will not precede the new measures on household debt due to be presented at the FSA’s press conference at 1400. We expect the following from the FSA. 1) New measures will refer only to new loans 2) Amortisation target will be 50% of LTV 3) Amortisation period will be 30 years. The council and the FSA will strive to avoid repeating the mistakes of e.g. the Netherlands (pushing through too tight regulation). Nevertheless, new regulation is always tricky and often tends to cause unexpected consequences as the dynamics involved are difficult to gauge beforehand. All in all, the new measures mean downside risks to household demand increase next year. How big these risks are will be clearer tomorrow.