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Vad säger Riksbankens räntebana

att Frasare i fronten skall ligga?

Givet dagens fixingspreadar

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ECB and QE

  • ECB: EUR 60bn/month including ABS and covered bond purchase programmes, which are expected around EUR 25bn/month (our calculations) so EUR 35bn, so EUR 665bn until sep-16 in total new purchases (which compares to expectations at 550bn earlier this week). 
  • Additional take on the total amount of new money. The current pace of ABS and covered purchases is 10bn/month, lower than the initital ambition of around 25bn. Assuming that the ECB makes no progress in increasing that, new purchases would land at 50bn, in line with media reports.

Dags för QE

  • Förväntningar om obligationsköp om EUR 50mdr/mån fram till slutet av 2016, vilket innebär 1100mdr totalt. Månadstakten är mycket nära Feds QE3 (som andel av BNP). Köp påbörjas i mars
  • Gräns på 20-25% av utestående stock av statsobligationer
  • Tidigare läckor antydde ingen riskpoolning, dvs köpen genomförs och risken tas av nationella centralbanker Grekland exkluderat

Danish central bank after Swiss central bank action

Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) has no scheduled policy meetings. Usually they tend to move on rates if there has been a change by the ECB (often the same day at 1600). Outside of ECB meeting days, there has been a tendency to move on Fridays at 1000. Rate cuts have in general been carried out following FX interventions in the magnitude of DKK 10-15bn. Our house view (and in line with market pricing) is that there will be a cut (by 10bp to -15bp) following the ECB meeting next week. The EUR peg is very well established and will be defended vigorously should need be. Note that the bottom end of the formal ERM2 range is as low as 7.29252 but in practice the DN seems to want to keep EURDKK above 7.42.