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OPEC rises from the ashes

A done deal in Vienna:

  • Simple plan
  • Russia participates
  • Texas take
Read about the oilcutdeal here, new window

 

Martin Jansson

Strategist

Commodities

nija03@handelsbanken.se
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Problem med nya regler i Kina

Kina: FT rapporterar om problem för utländska företag att föra ut utdelningar efter att Kina skruvade åt reglerna för kapitalutflöden den 28 november

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Keywords: China

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Dec 2
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland GDP, sa Q3 -0.1 0.4
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) November 2.8 2.8
14:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls November 180K 142K 178K
14:30 US Unemployment rate November 4.9 4.9 4.6
14:30 US Change in Private Payrolls November 175K 135K 156K
14:30 US Average hourly earnings November 0.2/0.8 0.4 / 2.8 -0.1 / 2.5
15:45 US ISM New York November 49.2 52.5
Sat, Dec 3
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
15:30 US Fed´s Dudley speaks on financial regulation
Sun, Dec 4
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
Austria Presidential election
Italy Constitutional referendum
Mon, Dec 5
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:45 China Caixin PMI Composite November 52.9 52.9
06:00 Japan Consumer Confidence November 101.5 42 40.5
08:30 Sweden PMI Services November 57.6 59.8
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production, sa October 0.2/ 0.4/ 6.8 -1.3
09:30 Sweden Service Production, sa October 0.5 / 3.8 0.2 / 3.9
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production October /1.5 /1.5 / 1.6 / -0.5
09:55 Germany Markit PMI Composite November 55.1 55
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite November 54.1 53.3 53.9
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services November 54.1 52.8 53.8
10:30 UK Markit PMI Composite November 54.6 54.7 55.2
11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales, sa October 0.8/1.7 -0.4 / 1.2 1.1 / 2.5
11:15 Norway House prices November / 12 / 11.6
14:30 US Fed´s Evans speaks
14:30 US Fed´s Dudley speaks on policy
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing November 55.2 54.8 57.2
17:00 World Markit PMI Composite November 53.3 53.3
17:00 World Markit PMI Services November 53.2 53.3
17:00 World Markit PMI Services November 53.2 53.3
20:05 US Fed´s Bullard speaks
Tue, Dec 6
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany Factory orders, sa October 0.6/1.6 -0.3 / 2.9 4.9 / 6.3
10:00 Norway Region Survey: Output next 6 months October 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.7
10:45 Sweden Riksbank´s Flodén speaks
11:00 Eurozone GDP, SA y-o-y Q3 /1.6 1.7 1.7
11:00 Eurozone GDP q-o-q Q3 0.3/ 0.3 0.3
16:00 US Durable Goods Orders October 0.7 0.3 / 2 4.6 / 1.8
16:00 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air October 0.5 -0.1
16:00 US Factory Orders, sa October 2.6 0.6 2.7
Wed, Dec 7
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:00 China China foreign reserves USD November 3085M 3.1B 3.1B
08:00 Germany Industrial Production, sa October 0.8/1.5 -1.6 0.3
08:00 Norway Industrial Production Manufacturing, sa October 1.0/ 2.3 0.2
08:00 Norway Industrial Production, sa October -5.2 10.7
08:00 Sweden Riksbank´s Jansson speaks
09:00 Denmark Industrial Production, sa October -7.5 / -4 4.7 / 3.6
09:30 UK Houseprices, Halifax November 0.2 1.5 0.2
10:30 UK Manufacturing Production, sa October 0.2/0.8 0.6 / 0.2 -1 / -0.5
10:30 UK Industrial Production, sa October 0.2/0.4 -0.3 / 0.4 -1.3 / -1.2
13:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications, sa W48 / -9.4 / -0.7
Thu, Dec 8
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
00:50 Japan GDP, sa ar Q3 0.6 0.2 0.5
01:00 UK RICS House Price Balance November 27 23.4 29.7
09:30 Sweden Average House Prices, (SCB) November 2.7M
09:30 Sweden Household Consumption
13:45 Eurozone ECB Policy Rate 10/1/2016 0 0 0
13:45 Eurozone ECB Lending Rate 10/1/2016 0.25 0.25 0.2
13:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit rate 10/1/2016 -0.40 -0.40 -0.4
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W48 250K 268K
Fri, Dec 9
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 China CPI y-o-y November 2.2 / 2.1
08:00 Finland Industrial Production,sa October 2.7
08:00 Germany Imports October 1.1 -0.5
08:00 Germany Exports October 1.6 -0.7
08:00 Norway CPI Underlying November 0.1/2.9 /2.9 0.2 / 2.9
08:00 Norway CPI November 0.2/3.5 0.5 / 3.7
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 94.1 93.8
Fri, Dec 2|
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Mon, Dec 5|
Tue, Dec 6|
Wed, Dec 7|
Thu, Dec 8|
Fri, Dec 9
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Commodity Strategy Comment — A done deal in Vienna: OPEC rises from the ashes

OPEC's biannual meeting on November 30 was about formalising the preliminary deal made in Algiers in September. Iraq and Iran finally came to the table and joined Saudi Arabia in formally trying to stabilise the oil price. This constitutes the first voluntary OPEC production cut in more than eight years and the oil price skyrocketed by 8% after the announcement. OPEC has decided to cut production by 1.2 million bbl/d, leading to a new production target of 32.5 million bbl/d effective January 1, 2017. The meeting was crowded with participants, as has been the case since November 2014, when the group decided to maintain output despite falling prices.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — USD buoyed by global funding shortage

- USD: High costs for the USD in the FX swaps
- EUR: Referendum in Italy and Austrian presidential election on Sunday
- EURNOK: Risk of a weaker NOK in next week's survey
- USDCNY: Weaker CNY vs. the USD, but unchanged effective rate

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Yield rises set to continue

Continued steepening in sight
We saw huge interest rate movements in the aftermath of the US election, and this trend has continued. The Fed's re-pricing has been clear and the market is starting to approach two rate hikes in 2017. An increase in December is a dead certainty. The market is thus moving toward the Fed's own interest rate forecast. We see knock-on effects in the Swedish market and consider there to be scope for a steeper Swedish curve, which is supported by the increasingly strained labour market.

There continues to be a major, widespread shortage of dollars after the changed rules for US money market funds which took effect on October 14. The question is how far the Fed and other major central banks will allow this to go before they again start to utilise the facilities that are still available since the major financial crisis eight years ago.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

FX Comment — December 4 is another important date in the eurozone

  1. Renzi serious about resigning if the "No" side wins
  2. New general election likely
  3. The Five Star Movement could end up in the government

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

The Italian referendum can start a chain of events leading up to a referendum on the euro — December 4 is another important date in the eurozone

  1. Renzi serious on resigning if "No-camp" wins
  2. New general election likely
  3. The Five Star Movement can end up in government

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se