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Solsken på bostadsobligationer

  • Vi har haft en rekommendation om säkerställda bostadsobligationer (i SEK) som ”lång” från tidigare ”neutral”
  • Bostadsobligationer i EUR har fortsatt att tighta mot swapräntor och har parkerat på nollstrecket
  • Covered-spreadar i SEK avviker sällan markant från motsvarande i euro

Läs varför här, nytt fönster

Andreas Skogelid


Fixed Income

Latest analyses




Swedish Rate Wrap


Latest from Speakers´ corner

Upp till bevis för OPEC

OPEC: Uppgörelse om förlängning av produktionsneddragningen med ytterligare nio månader. Fokus förefaller ha varit på att stärka banden mellan OPEC och Ryssland. Oljepriset faller.


Keywords: Oil

The chart of the day


Fri, May 19
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
16:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence advance May -3.0 -3.6 -3.3
Mon, May 22
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales April 0.1 -0.3
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index April 0.1 0.5
Tue, May 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing May 52.7 52
08:00 Germany GDP, sa Q1 0.6/1.7 0.4 / 1.8 0.6 / 1.7
09:00 France Markit PMI Composite May 56.5 56.6 57.6
09:00 France Markit PMI Manufacturing May 55.2 55.1 54
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing May 58.0 58.2 59.4
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite May 56.5 56.7 57.3
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa April 6.5 6.7 6.4 6.7
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate April 7.1 7.2 6.8 7.2
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite May 56.5 56.8 56.8
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing May 56.5 56.7 57
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services May 56.3 56.4 56.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate May 113.1 113 114.6
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations May 105.4 105.2 106.5
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment May 121.0 121.4 123.2
15:45 US Markit PMI Services flash May 49.4 50.9
15:45 US Markit PMI Services flash May 52.5 54
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing May 53.4 52.8 52.5
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index May 15 20 1
Wed, May 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate April 9.6 10.2
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto April 2.2 0.2
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) March 4.3 4.3 4.5
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey May 111.6 109.9 112.6 111
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) May 104.0 104.8 103.7 105.9
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence May 119.0 117.0 122.9 117
09:30 Sweden PPI April -0.1 / 6.5 -0.3 / 7.2
13:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications, sa W20 / -4.1 / 4.4
14:00 US Housing Starts April 1.2M 1.2M
16:00 US Existing Home Sales April 5.67M 5.7M 5.6M
20:00 US FOMC Minutes
Thu, May 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:30 UK GDP January 0.3/2.1 0.7 / 1.9 0.2 / 2
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W20 233K 234K
Fri, May 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:50 Japan CPI Core April -0.2 / -0.2 0 / -0.3
01:50 Japan CPI April -0.1 / 0.2 0.1 / 0.4
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q1 0.9 2.1 1.2
14:30 US Personal Consumption Q1 0.9 / 3.1 0.2 / 2.8
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 97.5 97 97.1
Fri, May 19|
Mon, May 22|
Tue, May 23|
Wed, May 24|
Thu, May 25|
Fri, May 26
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Latest publications in

Commodity Strategy Comment — OPEC and non-OPEC tighten their belts

Focusing on details was never likely at the spring OPEC meeting in Vienna. The group decided to extend the current cut by nine months. Instead of concentrating on specifics, the meeting and press conference seemed to be arranged to create the impression of a strong alliance between the world's two largest crude oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Martin Jansson, Strategist |

Commodity Strategy Comment — The last hurrah from Vienna

We see a close to 100% probability of an extension of oil production cuts from OPEC at the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25. For H2 2017, we see compliance with proposed cuts as a much more difficult issue than the deal itself. We think there is a 95% probability that Russia will sign on for a new six-month production cut period, but we see only a 30% probability that Russia will keep compliance for that period. Oil cuts during H2 2017 will come at a high cost due to seasonally higher production. We believe the next big price turn will come from non-compliance from Russia in particular but also other OPEC countries, as growing US production shows evidence of the futility of subsidising growth there by keeping production off stream. Saudi Arabia seems assured that production cuts at any price are the right way to go; it seems to us that the longer OPEC tries to keep production down, the more such measures backfire. 

Martin Jansson, Strategist |

FX Pilot — Strong yen despite BoJ efforts

-EURSEK: Sell the rally; SEK to strengthen ahead
-EURUSD: Forecast revised higher for Q2
-USDJPY: Abenomics will not see the yen lower

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — Global crossroads and new domestic target?

Global crossroads and new Riksbank target
We have identified three driving forces behind the strong global industrial business cycle: stimulus measures by central banks, a rising oil price and stimulus measures from Chinese authorities. All three are temporary and in the absence of new stimuli, the positive effects already appear to have reversed. We go through the arguments and conclude that global bond yields have a limited upside, and we change our recommendation from short to neutral.

April inflation figures were a positive surprise, involving significantly higher inflation than expected. But few things last for ever, and we expect lower inflation in the future. In line with expectations, the Riksbank proposes to move to CPIF as the target variable and introduce a tolerance interval ±1 percentage point around the 2% inflation target. Our conclusion is that this warrants no change in the near-term outlook for monetary policy.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist |

Macro comment — Macron wins, clearing all fears of Frexit

  1. France will stay in the EU
  2. Difficult task awaits Macron
  3. Only a mild positive market reaction expected

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist |