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Huvudbry för Riksbanken

Vi närmar oss Riksbankens andra penningpolitiska beslut för året (beslut meddelas 27 April). Marsinflationen var en tydlig besvikelse och det finns även en del annat som väger i den negativa vågskålen när utvecklingen sedan februarimötet utvärderas. Mot det står en ekonomi som går på högvarv. Vi landar sammantaget i en oförändrad vy på Riksbanken; reporäntebanan ligger still och inga utökade obligationsköp efter halvårsskiftet. Riskbilden är dock mot det duvaktiga hållet

 

Läs mer i Ränterullen, nytt fönster

Andreas Skogelid

Strategist

Fixed Income

ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2017-04-20

Swedish Rate Wrap

2017-04-19

Ränterullen

2017-04-03

Swedish Rate Wrap
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Trump presenterar skatteplan på onsdag

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  • Frankrike: Le Pen träder ner från partiledarrollen i Nationella fronten
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Keywords: UK, EMU, Politics, USA

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Apr 21
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing April 52.4 52.8
08:00 Norway Industrial Confidence Q1 -0.2 0.9
08:00 Norway Export March -6.1 / 19.4 10.5 / 29
09:00 France Markit PMI Composite April 56.8 57.4
09:00 France Markit PMI Manufacturing April 53.3 55.1
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing April 58.9 58.3 58.2
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite April 56.8 57.1 56.3
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite April 56.4 56.4 56.7
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing April 56.0 56.2 56.8
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services April 55.9 56 56.2
10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto Fuel March 1.8 / 3.7 -1.8 / 1.7
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing April 53.8 53.3 52.8
16:00 US Existing Home Sales March 5.6M 5.5M 5.7M
Sun, Apr 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
France First round presidential election
Mon, Apr 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate April 112.3 112.4 112.9
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations April 106.0 105.7 105.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment April 119.0 119.5 121.1
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index March 0.3 0.1
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index April 17.5 16.9 16.8
Tue, Apr 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales March 0.3 0.5
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa March 6.8 6.4
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate March 7.4 6.8
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller February 0.7/5.73 0.9 / 5.6 0.7 / 5.8
16:00 US Consumer Confidence April 123.7 124.9 120.3
16:00 US New Home Sales March 588K 587K 621K
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index April 17 22 20
Wed, Apr 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto March 1 2
08:45 France Consumer Confidence (INSEE) April 99.9 99.9
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey April 108.8 112.8
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) April 102.6 103.4
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence April 111.9 123.2
Thu, Apr 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
05:00 Japan BoJ Policy Rate 4/27/2017 -0.1 -0.1
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence April 22.9
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate March 9.2
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey April 9.9 9.8
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) February 4.2 4.2
09:00 Denmark Industrial Confidence Indicator April -1
09:30 Sweden Export March -1.6 / 7.4
09:30 Sweden Import March -1 / 7.2
09:30 Sweden Repo rate decision 5/3/2017 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator April 1.2 1.2
11:00 Eurozone Business Confidence Indicator April 0.81 0.8
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence April 108.1 107.9
13:45 Eurozone ECB Policy Rate 3/1/2017 0.0 0
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary April -0.2/1.8 0.1 / 1.5
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary April -0.1/1.9 0.2 / 1.6
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders March 1.5 1.8 / 5.3
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W16 244K
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air March 1
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa March -0.5 5.5
Fri, Apr 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence April -7 -6
07:30 France GDP Q1 0.4/ 0.4 / 1.1
08:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa March 0.0 1
08:00 Norway Household goods consumption March -5.2 / -2.3
08:45 France HICP April 0.7 / 1.4
09:00 Denmark Unemployment March 4.3
09:00 Denmark Unemployment, LFS 6.4
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa March 0.2
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales March / 2.8
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) April 2.8 2.9
10:30 UK GDP January 0.4/2.2 0.7 / 1.9
11:00 Eurozone HICP Flash y-o-y April 1.7 / 1.5
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q1 1.2 2.1
14:30 US Personal Consumption Q1 0.9 / 3.1
15:45 US Chicago ISM April 56.9 57.7
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.4 98
Fri, Apr 21|
Sun, Apr 23|
Mon, Apr 24|
Tue, Apr 25|
Wed, Apr 26|
Thu, Apr 27|
Fri, Apr 28
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Macro comment — Macron in pole position after the first round

  1. Macron big favourite in round two
  2. Tricky presidency to come
  3. Euro rallies as an initial reaction

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — A headache for the Riksbank

We are approaching the Riksbank's second monetary policy decision of the year (the decision will be announced on April 27). The March inflation figure was a clear disappointment and, when evaluating developments since the February meeting, there are a number of other factors on the negative side. On the other hand, the economy is going at full speed. Overall, our view of the Riksbank remains unchanged: the repo rate path remains static and there are no increased bond purchases after the end of June. However, the risk scenario is on the dovish side.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — When France sneezes, Europe catches a cold

- EUR: Option volatilities indicate great fear of "Frexit"
- EURSEK: Increased volatility next few weeks
- EURUSD: Still USD-bull despite inflation miss

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Commodity Bulletin — At the peak of a mini-cycle

Optimism is growing
Global optimism, coupled with strong economic data, has spilt over into an expectation of a self-fulfilling global recovery. We see three driving forces behind the pick-up in global economic activity since last au-tumn. The first two relate to stimuli from central banks' monetary policy and the expansive policy in China. The third is the recovery on the commodity markets - particularly for the price of oil. The optimism since the US election in November last year has generally been regarded as a "Trump trade". We believe, however, that the stronger economic sta-tistics are largely an effect of the three factors men-tioned above, rather than of President Trump. Togeth-er, these three driving forces have been strong enough to lift the economy and growth expectations, but the effect will subside later in 2017, and it will probably be difficult for President Trump to compen-sate for this.

OPEC to extend the agreement?
The half-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna was a show of strength from the slumbering cartel. No sooner have the fuel pumps been cut off than the focus is on the group extending the agreement at the next meeting on May 25. The market expects an extension, but we argue that a surprise departure from the agreement is actually not that unlikely. We believe that the oil price will approach USD 40, regardless of the outcome of the OPEC meeting.

Base metals to follow China's mini-cycle
It looks as if China's 2016 recovery will be further maintained. The latest data harvest points to at least another six months of strong activity.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se