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China is trying to scare off speculators

  • EURSEK: Slowdown in Swedish outperformance
  • EURNOK: Low inflation puts downside pressure on NOK
  • EURUSD: Relative inflation favours parity
  • USDCNY: Chinese ‘punish’ speculators
  • EURCZK: Is this the end of the current koruna policy?
Read analysis in FX Pilot, new window

Lars Henriksson

FX Strategist

Trading Strategy

lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2017-01-11

Kronbladet

2017-01-11

FX Pilot

2016-12-14

Kronbladet
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Brexit-oro skakar pundet

  • USA/UK: UK kommer att få ett snabbt och rättvist handelsavtal med USA, uppger Trump. Inga bilaterala avtal kan ingås innan UK lämnat EU
  • UK: PM May väntas avslöja mer detaljer kring kommande Brexit-förhandlingar, rapporterar Telegraph. S.k. ”hård-Brexit” där UK lämnar den inre marknaden och tullunionen.

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Keywords: UK, USA, Politics

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Jan 13
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland CPI December 0 / 0.7 0.2 / 1
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto November -0.6 3.3
08:00 Finland GDP Monthly Indicator November 2.6 1.6
12:00 Sweden Riksbank´s Deputy Governor Ohlsson speaks
14:30 US Retail Sales Advance December 0.7 0.2 0.6
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.5 98.2 98.1
Mon, Jan 16
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
05:30 Japan Retail Sales November / -0.2 / 1.7
08:00 Norway Export December 6.5 / 2.9 4.4 / 8.5
09:00 Sweden HOX, Flat prices December -0.1 / 6.9 1.1 / 8
09:00 Sweden HOX,House and flat prices total December 0.1 / 8 0.2 / 8.6
09:00 Sweden HOX, House prices December 0.3 / 8.6 -0.4 / 8.9
Tue, Jan 17
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
05:30 Japan Industrial Production, sa November 1.5
10:30 UK CPI December 0.3/1.4 0.2 / 1.1
10:30 UK CPI Core December 1.4 / 1.4
11:00 Germany ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment January 18.1
11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Expectations January 19.0 13.8
11:00 Germany ZEW Current Situation January 65.1 63.5
14:30 US Empire Manufacturing January 7.3 9
15:30 Sweden Riksbank´s Skingsley speaks
Wed, Jan 18
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany HICP preliminary December 1.0/1.7 1 / 1.7
08:00 Germany CPI preliminary December 0.7/1.7 0.7 / 1.7
10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate, sa October 4.8 4.8
11:00 Eurozone HICP December /0.9 0.4 / 0.9
14:30 US CPI, less food and energy December 0.2/2.1 0.2 / 2.1
14:30 US CPI December 0.3/2.1 0.2 / 1.7
15:15 US Industrial Production, sa December 0.7 -0.4
16:00 US NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Market January 69 70
16:50 Norway Norges Bank Governor Olsen speaks
Thu, Jan 19
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Norway Norges Bank survey of bank lending Q4
10:30 UK RICS House Price Balance December 30% 29.7
13:45 Eurozone ECB Policy Rate 1/19/2017 0.0 0.0 0
13:45 Eurozone ECB Lending Rate 1/19/2017 0.25 0.25 0.2
13:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit rate 1/19/2017 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
Fri, Jan 20
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
03:00 China Construction Investment December 5.2
03:00 China Fixed Asset Investments December 8.3 / 8.3
03:00 China Industrial Production December 6.1 6.2
03:00 China GDP q-o-q Q4 1.7 1.8
03:00 China GDP yoy/ytd Q4 6.7 6.7 6.7
03:00 China Retail Sales y-o-y December 10.7 10.8
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales December 0.5
10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto Fuel December -0.2/6.6 0.2 / 5.9
Fri, Jan 13|
Mon, Jan 16|
Tue, Jan 17|
Wed, Jan 18|
Thu, Jan 19|
Fri, Jan 20
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

FI Comment — Swedbank Hypotek will introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. Swedbank Hypotek will introduce 191, with a maturity of 5.5 years
  2. Coupon of 1.00%; maturity on June 15, 2022; ISIN SE0007525654
  3. Indicative pricing at 46.5bp over swap, matched maturity

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Trading Strategy — Lift of Indonesia ban – game changer for stainless

On Wednesday, January 11, Indonesia announced that it would state a change in its policy on ore exports later in the week. This led to a 4% drop in the nickel price at the end of trading on that day. Then, on Thursday, January 12, Indonesia announced that it is lifting its ban on ore exports. In Thursday's trading, the nickel price pared its losses at 5% but then rebounded later and closed unchanged from the January 11 price. The opening of Indonesian ore exports is set to have longer-term effects on nickel prices and the stainless steel industry.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — China is trying to scare off speculators

-EURSEK: Slowdown in Swedish outperformance
-EURNOK: Low inflation puts downside pressure on NOK
-EURUSD: Relative inflation favours parity
-USDCNY: Chinese 'punish' speculators
-EURCZK: Is this the end of the current koruna policy?

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

2016 Annual Review — Gold, frankincense and myrrh

- Good year for commodities investors
- It's raining gold in Beijing
- Frankincense from Vienna
- Myrrh in Washington

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Riksbank lightens up on QE preparedness

Executive Board split regarding new measures
At first sight, there was nothing particularly remarkable about the Riksbank's final monetary policy decision for 2016. The repo rate is unchanged and the Riksbank will continue its bond purchases for another six months. However, if we consider that the Executive Board was totally split regarding the decision to make more bond purchases (two completely against and one in favour of half the amount), and that the possibility of more measures between the meetings is being removed, the tone is definitely more hawkish than expected.

We retain our view that the Riksbank has completed its monetary policy interventions. We believe the repo rate will be raised on the first occasion in H1 2018 and no further bond purchases will be decided. Concerning the repo rate, however, the risk scenario is tilted toward an increase toward the end of 2017. 

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se