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Important Riksbank meeting in April

  • Riksbank: Expecting a scheduled tightening in July
  • EURSEK: Oil price to hold back inflation
  • EURNOK: Uncertainty to hold back the NOK
Read why in FX Pilot, new window

Pierre Carlsson

Strategist

Foreign Exchange

pica01@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2017-03-22

FX Pilot

2017-03-20

Swedish Rate Wrap

2017-03-17

Ränterullen
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Sura marknader efter Trumps miss

  • USA: Trump öppnar upp för samarbete med Demokraterna. Samtidigt uppmanas rebelliska republikaner för att stötta Trumps politik om de inte ska bli sidsteppade i framtida ärenden.
  • Sverige: Avtalsrörelsen går in i sitt slutskede. Parterna i industrin har fått tt bud som ska besvaras idag. Avtalet löper ut den 31 mars. Förhandlingarna behandlar utöver lön även mer flexibel arbetstid

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Keywords: USA, Politics, Sweden, Labour Market

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Mar 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto February 2.4 -0.2
08:45 France GDP Q4 0.4/1.2 0.2 / 0.9 0.4 / 1.1
13:30 US Durable Goods Orders February 2.3 / -0.1 1.7 / 5
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing March 54.8 54.2 53.4
Mon, Mar 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence March 20.8 22.9
09:30 Sweden Household Lending February / 7.1 / 7.1
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate March 110.8 111.1 112.3
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations March 104.3 104.2 105.7
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment March 117.9 118.4 119.3
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index March 21.0 24.5 16.9
Tue, Mar 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland House Prices February -0.5 / -0.9
09:05 Sweden Riksbank Governor Ingves speaks
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa February 0.6/ 1.3
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales February /2.7 / 2.2
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller January 0.8/5.6 0.9 / 5.6
16:00 US Consumer Confidence March 113.4 114.8
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index March 14 17
Wed, Mar 29
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey March 110.0 111.6
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) March 104.3 104.5
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence March 114.1 117.7
09:15 Sweden NIER publishes economic forecast 0.4
11:35 Sweden Riksbank Floden speaks
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa February 2.5 -2.8
Thu, Mar 30
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa February 0.2 1.4
08:00 Norway Household goods consumption February -23 / 0.8
09:00 Denmark Industrial Confidence Indicator March -2
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator March 1.1 1.3
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence March 108.1 108
12:45 Norway Norges Bank Deputy Governor speaks
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary March 0.7 / 2.2
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary March 0.4/1.8 0.6 / 2.2
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q4 2.0 1.9
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W12 258K
Fri, Mar 31
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence March -7 -6
01:50 Japan CPI February /0.3 0.1 / 0.5
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth February 5.1 5.1
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth, Households February 6.5
08:00 Germany Retail Sales Feb 0.5/-1.2
09:00 Denmark GDP Q4 0.2
09:00 Denmark Unemployment February 4.2
09:00 Denmark Unemployment, LFS 6.2
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa March 5.9 5.9
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) March 3.1 3.1
10:30 UK GDP October 0.7/2.0 0.7 / 2
11:00 Eurozone HICP Flash y-o-y March /1.8 1.7 / 2
14:30 US PCE Deflator February 0.1/2.1 0.4 / 1.9
14:30 US PCE Core February 0.2/1.7 0.3 / 1.7
15:45 US Chicago ISM March 56.8 57.4
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 97.8 97.6
Fri, Mar 24|
Mon, Mar 27|
Tue, Mar 28|
Wed, Mar 29|
Thu, Mar 30|
Fri, Mar 31
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

FX Pilot — Important Riksbank meeting in April

- Riksbank: Expecting a scheduled tightening in July
- EURSEK: Oil price to hold back inflation
- EURNOK: Uncertainty to hold back the NOK

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Oil price fall challenging the inflation trend

The global economic climate continues to be strong. We see evidence of this in the US where most macro data is exceeding market expectations. The recent harvest of data from China confirms a strong start to the year. The trend in global inflation is also positive. Previous monetary policy stimulus measures are feeding into the economy and contributing to the improvement that we are now seeing. This forms the basis of increasing long yields.
Inflation is partly driven by earlier energy price rises. The price of oil falling to USD 40/barrel by year-end represents a risk to our view of inflation and long yields. Despite this, we still believe that interest rates will continue to rise. We address this on page 3.

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Commodity Strategy Comment — OPEC puts shale on safe ground

We revise our full-year crude oil price forecast from USD 60/bbl to USD 40/bbl. After six days of oil price declines, we believe it is clear the market has realised that activity gains among US shale producers will challenge this year's oil market balance. Over the last three months, shale has beaten our most optimistic scenario. OPEC has done what we expected it to do by cutting production, but it cannot continue intervene when shale producers counteract that cut in less than 12 months, particularly given that it took one year for OPEC to achieve agreement.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — Swedbank Hypotek will introduce a new SEK FRN covered bond

  1. Swedbank Hypotek will introduce 190FR
  2. 190FR will mirror the existing fixed 190 with maturity in September 2021
  3. The coupon is set to Stibor3M+112bp; ISIN SE0009580103

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se