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International Petroleum Week

  • US shale oil in great shape
  • OPEC’s back-stop works
  • Chinese demand outlook
  • Trump is everywhere
Read why in Commodity Strategy, new window

Martin Jansson

Strategist

Commodities

nija03@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2017-02-22

Reflections from IP Week in London

2017-01-13

Trading Strategy

2017-01-04

Årskrönika 2016
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Fastighetspriser i Kina

Kina: Fastighetspriser steg i 45 av Kinas 70 största städer i januari. Priserna föll i 20 städer. Myndigheter har vidtagit åtgärder för att undvika en bostadsbubbla

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Keywords: China

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Feb 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto January -0.7 2
08:45 France Consumer Confidence (INSEE) February 100.2 100.2
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales January -1.7 0.5
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey February 111.9 111.6
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) February 104.6 104.5
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence February 118.7 117.7
16:00 US New Home Sales January 571K 535K 555K
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 96.0 98.5 96.3
Mon, Feb 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence February 21
09:00 Denmark Industrial Confidence Indicator February -2 -4
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing February 57.0 57
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite February 56.1 56.1
09:30 Sweden Household Lending January / 7.1
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite February 56.0 56
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing February 55.5 55.5
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services February 55.6 55.6
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator February 1.0 0.8
11:00 Eurozone Business Confidence Indicator February 0.79 0.8
11:00 Eurozone Service Confidence Indicator February 13.2 12.9
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence February 108.0 107.9
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders January 1.6/ -0.5 / 1.7
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air January 1
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa January 0.9 1.6
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index February 20.0 22.1
Tue, Feb 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence February -6 -5
08:00 Finland House Prices January -0.7 / -0.6
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth January 4.8 4.8
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth, Households January 6.4
09:00 Denmark GDP Q4 0.4/1.8 0.2 0.4
09:30 Sweden GDP Q4 0.8/2.3 1.6/3.0 0.5 / 2.8
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa January 1.4/ 2.7/ -2.9
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales January /2.3 /3.1 / 0.6
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q4 2.1 1.9
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller December 0.7/5.3 0.9 / 5.3
15:45 US Chicago ISM February 53.0 50.3
16:00 US Consumer Confidence February 111.0 111.8
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index February 10.0 12
Wed, Mar 1
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:00 China PMI Manufacturing February 51.2 51.3
02:45 China Caixin PMI Manufacturing February 50.8 51
08:00 Finland GDP, sa Q4 0.4
08:30 Sweden PMI manufacturing, sa February 62
09:00 Norway PMI manufacturing, sa February 51.8 51.4
09:30 Sweden Riksbank publishes minutes from February meeting
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa February 5.9 5.9
10:30 UK Markit PMI Manufacturing February 55.6 55.9
11:00 Denmark PMI manufacturing, sa February 59.9
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary February -0.8 / 1.9
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary February 0.6/2.1 -0.6 / 1.9
14:30 US PCE Deflator January 0.5/2.0 0.2 / 1.6
14:30 US PCE Core January 0.3/1.8 0.1 / 1.5
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing February 54.3
16:00 US ISM manufacturing February 56.0 56
17:00 World Markit PMI Manufacturing February 52.7
20:00 US Fed release Beige Book
Thu, Mar 2
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa January 1.1 1.8 -2.1
08:00 Norway Household goods consumption January 17.6 / -0.8
11:00 Eurozone CPI Flash estimate /1.9
11:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate, sa January 9.6 9.6
11:00 Eurozone HICP Flash y-o-y February 1.9 / 1.8
11:15 Norway Central Bank Governor Olsen speaks
15:45 US ISM New York February 57.7
Fri, Mar 3
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
China Political and National people´s congress March 03-10, 2017
00:30 Japan CPI Core January 0.0 0 / -0.1
00:30 Japan CPI January /0.4 -0.2 / 0.3
02:45 China Caixin PMI Composite February 52.2
09:00 Denmark Unemployment January 4.3 4.3 4.3
09:00 Denmark Unemployment, LFS 6.2 6.2
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production, sa January 2.1/ 2.0/ -1.8
09:30 Sweden Service Production, sa January 1.2 / 3.9
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production January /1.5 /2.7 / -0.9
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) February 3.1 3.1 3.2
10:30 UK Markit PMI Composite February 55.6 55.5
11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales, sa January 0.3/1.5 -0.3 / 1.4
11:15 Norway House prices February / 12.4
15:45 US Markit PMI Services Biz Act February 53.9
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing February 56.4 56.5
17:00 World Markit PMI Composite February 53.9
17:00 World Markit PMI Services February 53.9
19:00 US Fed Governor Yellen speaks
Fri, Feb 24|
Mon, Feb 27|
Tue, Feb 28|
Wed, Mar 1|
Thu, Mar 2|
Fri, Mar 3
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Reflections from IP Week in London —

The atmosphere was far more upbeat at this year's International Petroleum Week, given the sharp oil price increase since the previous IP gathering, with levels now considered healthy for the industry. Expectations are divided between three views: 1) the market will continue to trend toward USD 65 per barrel, which is the long-term cost trend and also the acquisition policy of many companies; 2) fall back to the marginal cost of production at USD 50, balancing around inventory held; or 3) hover between the two depending on the strength of one's belief in the first two views. Few believe in oil breaking out of this price range in the short to medium term, so OPEC has clearly given the industry some time to breathe. However, the short-lived price recovery is already in danger as OPEC and Russia fail to deliver on agreed cuts and as US shale oil roars back to life.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Jitters about “Frexit” overstate the risks

- Brexit story will not be repeated in France
- EURSEK: Corrective increase still in play
- EURGBP: GBP will hold up near term
- USDCNY: Authorities still control the CNY

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — Kommuninvest introduces a new 2023 bond

  1. Kommuninvest will introduce K2302, six-year maturity at issue
  2. Coupon 0.75%, maturity on February 22 2023, ISIN SE0009662943
  3. Indicative pricing 25.0bp over swap, matched maturity

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Global support for the economic climate and inflation

Macroeconomic view challenges Riksbank's staying power
There is currently an abundance of strong macroeconomic data. In our view, we are seeing the effects of the relaxed monetary policy of recent years feeding through to the economic system. A wave of upward revisions to GDP forecasts will be seen in the near future (Figure 1).

Swedish data is also coming in strongly; for example, the Swedish labour market appears to be increasingly tighter. The January inflation rate fell back compared with December, which was expected. Our view is that this does not change the trend toward increasing inflation during 2017. Despite this, the Riksbank is indicating that a reduction in the repo rate is more likely than an increase. Policy errors made during 2010 and 2011 are still in recent memory and are curbing the will for tighter monetary policy.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — SCBC to introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. The Swedish Covered Bond Corporation (SCBC) will introduce 147
  2. Coupon of 2.00; maturity on June 17, 2026 (above 9 years at issue); ISIN SE0009383664
  3. Indicative price range at 66-70bp over swap, matched maturity

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se