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Ränterullen - Centralbanksrevy stundar

En kavalkad av centralbanksmöten avslutar ett relativt odramatiskt år för penningpolitiken världen över med allt lägre volatilitet på räntemarknaden. Inte heller den här mötesvändan lär rucka marknaden i grunden. Vi räknar med att Fed höjer och upprepar räntehöjningsplanerna framöver. ECB avviker inte från det mjuka budskapet i oktober. Bank of England avvaktar brexit-förhandlingar medan Norges bank tar till sig svag valuta och stark olja för att branta upp räntebanan. 

Claes Måhlén

Chief Strategist

Fixed Income

clma02@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2017-10-31

Macro Comment Sweden

2017-03-03

Ränterullen

2017-02-17

Ränterullen
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Skattereform rycker närmare i USA

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Keywords: USA, Politics

The chart of the day

Calendar

Sat, Dec 9
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 China CPI y-o-y November / 101.9 / 101.7
Mon, Dec 11
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Denmark CPI November 0.1 / 1.5 -0.3 / 1.3
08:00 Norway CPI Underlying November 0,0/1,2 /1,2 0.3 / 1.1 -0.3 / 1
08:00 Norway CPI November 0,2/1,2 0.1 / 1.2 0.1 / 1.1
Tue, Dec 12
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:30 Sweden HICP November -0.1 / -0.1
09:30 Sweden CPI November 0,1/1,8 -0.1 / 1.7
09:30 Sweden CPIF November 0,1/1,9 -0.1 / 1.8
09:30 Sweden CPIF ex energy November -0,1/1,7 0 / 1.8
10:30 UK CPI November 0,3/3,1 0.1 / 3
10:30 UK CPI Core November /2,7 / 2.6
11:00 Germany ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment December 30.9
11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Expectations December 17,2 18.7
11:00 Germany ZEW Current Situation December 88,5 88.8
12:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism November 103.8
Wed, Dec 13
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Sweden Prospera Inflations Expectations
10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate, sa September 4,2 4.3
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Production October -0,3 -0.6
13:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications, sa W50 / 4.7
14:30 US CPI, less food and energy November 0,2/1,8 0.2 / 1.8
14:30 US CPI November 0,4/2,2 0.1 / 2
20:00 US FOMC rate decision 12/13/2017 1,375 1.2
Thu, Dec 14
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:00 UK RICS House Price Balance November 1.3
03:00 China Fixed Asset Investments November / 6.9
03:00 China Industrial Production November 6,2 6.2
03:00 China Retail Sales y-o-y November 10,3 10
08:00 Finland CPI November 0.5
09:00 Sweden HOX, Flat prices November -2.8 / 0.6
09:00 Sweden HOX,House and flat prices total November -3 / 2.9
09:00 Sweden HOX, House prices November -3.2 / 4.4
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing December 62,1 62.5
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite December 57,2 57.3
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa November 6,6 6.7
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate November 6 6.3
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite December 57,3 57.5
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing December 59,7 60.1
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services December 55,9 56.2
10:00 Norway Norway Policy Rate decision 12/15/2017 0,5 0,5 0.5
10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto Fuel November 0,5/0,4 0.3 / -0.3
13:00 UK Bank of England decision 12/14/2017 0,5 0.5
13:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit rate 12/14/2017 -0,4 -0.4
14:30 US Retail Sales Advance November 0,3 0.2
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing December 54 53.9
Sat, Dec 9|
Mon, Dec 11|
Tue, Dec 12|
Wed, Dec 13|
Thu, Dec 14
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Swedish Rate Wrap — Central bank show imminent

A cavalcade of central bank meetings will bring to an end a fairly undramatic year for monetary policy in global terms, with lower and lower volatility on the fixed income market. Nor is this round of meetings likely to shake the market to its foundations. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the rate and to repeat its rate-hiking plans for the future. The ECB will not deviate from the soft message that we heard in October. The Bank of England will be waiting to see the results of the Brexit negotiations, while Norges Bank will make the most of its weak currency and strong oil in order to steepen the yield curve.

The Riksbank has the advantage of hearing the results of this week's meetings prior to the final monetary policy discussion of the year on December 19. The main focus will be on whether the QE programme will formally be terminated after year-end, with the Riksbank therefore being prepared to deviate from the ECB's plans next year. We believe this will be the case, but that the news will be couched in an otherwise dovish message.

FX Comment — We revise our EURUSD forecast

  1. We revise our EURUSD forecast
  2. The tax reform dominates the short picture
  3. We forecast a slightly stronger dollar in the coming year

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Commodity Strategy Comment — OPEC and non-OPEC extended the deal

OPEC and non-OPEC agreed to extend production cuts to the end of next year, as the target to bring global stocks down to their five-year average has not yet been achieved. However OPEC plans to revaluate the accord at the OPEC meeting in June; it is not simply a clean nine-month extension. Russia finally agreed to continue to work with OPEC and won the battle of being the most influential participant in the deal by refusing to announce its intensions ahead of the meeting. An exit strategy seems to be less of a problem, as Novak and Al-Falih say they have come to the joint conclusion that they are far away from reaching the final goal.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — The right time to sell EURSEK

EURSEK volatility has returned with a vengeance ahead of year-end and an packed schedule of events, such as the calculation of the resolution fee, the distribution of PPM money and the Riksbank's December meeting being spiced up by concerns about the housing market. With many similarities to last year, we think EURSEK will be-have in much the same way as it did then. Ultimately, the Riksbank will have the final say, as the last meeting of 2017 is due very late in the year. Focus will be on the decision to end or prolong QE. We see it ending and stick to our view of a lower EURSEK.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Housing market is calling the tune

The fall in house prices during the autumn has caused concern on the market that Sweden may be poised for a trend similar to that seen in Denmark ten years ago. We make comparisons, and conclude that there are similarities, but that the differences are decisive, particularly the current absence of an interest rate upturn, and thus rising housing costs. In addition, the largest drop in prices in Denmark came in conjunction with the financial crisis. In the absence of a sharp upturn in mortgage rates or an external shock, a major fall in Swedish house prices would appear less likely. In addition, the continuing strength of data should reduce the concern about a broader slowdown in the Swedish economy.

For the Riksbank, the housing market trend may mean slightly more difficult terrain to manoeuvre in. We believe this supports the line of wait-and-see before making a change in monetary policy, despite the strong economy and an inflation rate close to the target.

Concern about house prices has also rubbed off on slightly higher spreads for Swedish covered bonds. With interest rates remaining low and tight spreads in the equivalent EUR-denominated instruments, we continue to see value in covered bonds.