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Ränterullen - Stigande inflation borgar för fortsatt tryck på räntor

Efter den senaste tidens dramatiska ränteuppgång i framför allt USA är det på sin plats att utreda hur mycket högre räntor kan gå. Stigande inflation och fortsatt god fart på ekonomin framöver indikerar fortsatt uppsida. 

På hemmaplan konstaterar vi att Riksbanken fortfarande är på spåret för att höja räntan i september, trots markant lägre inflationsprognos. Vi går också igenom nästa veckas mycket viktiga KPI-siffra som sätter tonen för hela året.

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Ränterullen - stigande inflation borgar för fortsatt tryck på räntor

Claes Måhlén

Chief Strategist

Fixed Income

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FX Pilot — A lesson on the importance of normalisation

Has the equity market ever slid so aggressively on an inflation scare before? We still believe what is really troubling the market is that low or zero productivity gains can only be offset by other factors, such as low interest rates or tax cuts, temporarily. In the long run, improved productivity needs to return to support sustainable gains. If that does not occur, equity prices will start to fall once interest rates climb higher again, especially if the first sign of higher inflation is higher wages. It has not been the easiest start for the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, but he is probably grateful to his predecessor for how advanced the central bank's process of normalising monetary policy is. Is there a lesson to be learned for the Riksbank?

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — A roadmap for the Riksbank

In this week's Swedish Rate Wrap, we look at the state of play ahead of the Riksbank's next monetary policy meeting on February 13 (decision to be announced February 14) and we sketch out three scenarios for the timing of the first repo rate hike. Our main scenario is a September increase, which is in line with the Riksbank's rate path.

We also reiterate our recommendations for short durations and forecast continued upward pressure on interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic.


Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

FX Pilot — When most things are expensive, the USD and yen are cheap

We are now well into the new year, and it is time to consider our choices for the best FX market ideas for 2018. The year has started positively, just as last year ended, and it is hard to see why that would come to a sudden end any time soon. However, as we conclude in our Global Macro Forecast, we believe we are now at the very peak of the business cycle, and while a more pronounced downturn will not arrive until next year, signs of a slowdown are likely to emerge before that. Abundant access to cheap capital from the equity and credit markets has coincided with generous fiscal policy and low wage gains (despite negative unemployment gaps in many important economies) around the world. It is time to start preparing the ship for a rocky ride, and we are taking aboard the dollar and the yen for a smoother sailing.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — Winning strategy: short duration

In this week's Rate Wrap, we summarise our outlook on interest rates from our Global Macro Forecast. While we predict a slowdown in the US in 2019, we expect strong global growth to continue for most of 2018, which will influence the fixed income markets in the near term. We believe that short duration will be the winning strategy in this environment.

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |