FX Pilot - Will they or won´t they

Credit Comment — Vasakronan - Once again a stable report

1. Another stable report
2. Continued unstable economic outlook
3. We maintain our view of a BBB+ rating

Commodities Daily Notice — May 16, 2012

FX Pilot — Will they or won’t they?

- Negative on risk sentiment 
- Neutral on EUR/USD, neutral on EUR/SEK
- Bearish on USD/JPY

The Pulp Paper — May 15, 2012

Commodities Daily Notice — May 15, 2012

Swedish Rate Wrap — Data so far not enough to change Riksbank policy

Global: weaker risk appetite
The market has been characterised by weaker risk appetite. We expect the debt crisis to continue to escalate and that macro indicators will continue to show weakness. Conse-quently, we maintain our neutral outlook.

The Greeks do not vote no to the euro (yet)
At the time of this writing PASOK is struggling to build a coalition government, but a new election seems probable. The previous heavyweights in the political landscape must now convince voters that the country will be forced to leave the union if they "vote wrong".

Spain: the prisoners on the Iberian Peninsula
How Spanish banks handle the bad loans will be a future textbook example of game theory. The optimal solution would be a pan-European recapitalisation plan. Currently, however, neither the banks nor the government want to fully acknowledge the problem. Instead, the outcome will be the pitiful lengthy process we are now witnessing that will probably end with external help, but meanwhile the econ-omy has time for maximum suffering along the way.

Sweden: July rate cut unlikely despite weak data
Recent Swedish data have hardly helped to straighten out the question marks regarding where the Swedish economy is headed. It looks like the Riksbank may be unpleasantly surprised by weaker Q1 growth. However, data will not yet be weak enough to justify a rate cut as early as July. By June at the latest, the short end of the curve will probably be pressed upwards.