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FI, FX & Commodity Strategy

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Archive

FI Comment — Stadshypotek to introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. Stadshypotek will introduce SHYP1588
  2. The coupon is 1.5%; ISIN SE0011063015
  3. Pricing 22.5-23.5bp over swap, matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Keep an eye on inflation and Riksbank minutes

Ahead of last week's monetary policy meeting, we were relatively isolated in our expectation of an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points in December. Confirmation has now been forthcoming that a rate hike is close at hand. Following the most recent monetary policy meeting held on September 5, the Riksbank was uncharacteristically unambiguous that it intends to hike the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in December or February. However, there was no indication given as to how it plans to decide between the two alternatives. In our opinion, February seems to be more likely, as we believe that inflation will prove to be slightly lower than forecast by the Riksbank over the near term. Over the coming days, more information will become available, which we expect to underpin our conclusion as to when the interest rate will be raised. The inflation outcome for August will be released on September 14 and the minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting will be published on September 17

Christina Nyman, Head of Forecasting | chny09@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — SEK set to strengthen, but not just yet

• US economy performing at the peak of its capacity
• Brexit agreements may be pushed back to next year
• Weak NOK sets the stage for a higher central bank interest rate forecast
• In focus: later hike, but increasingly hawkish messages from the Riksbank

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — Bond index changes, September 2018

  1. No major changes in duration
  2. Excluded bonds: SCBC 140, Shyp 1582
  3. Indices will rebalance 2018-09-07

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Decisive week approaching

A Riksbank board meeting is approaching, one that is unusually intriguing, in our eyes. It also comes just days before an unusually uncertain Riksdag election (see our analysis in Kronbladet, with the FX Pilot). The Riksbank's meeting will be crucial for the fixed income market. We expect the Executive Board to repeat its message from July and to signal a repo rate rise toward the end of the year. We also summarise the yield forecasts from our most recent Macro Forecast and compare those with market pricing.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Shaky krona ahead of election and next Riksbank meeting

• Expectations for the Riksbank have fallen compared to those for the ECB, weakening the krona
• Concerns about Turkey lead to stronger Swiss franc and yen
• Fed predicts more rate rises, despite criticism from President Trump
In focus: Groundless Swexit concerns weaken krona ahead of election

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se