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Ränterullen - Stigande inflation borgar för fortsatt tryck på räntor

Efter den senaste tidens dramatiska ränteuppgång i framför allt USA är det på sin plats att utreda hur mycket högre räntor kan gå. Stigande inflation och fortsatt god fart på ekonomin framöver indikerar fortsatt uppsida. 

På hemmaplan konstaterar vi att Riksbanken fortfarande är på spåret för att höja räntan i september, trots markant lägre inflationsprognos. Vi går också igenom nästa veckas mycket viktiga KPI-siffra som sätter tonen för hela året.

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Ränterullen - stigande inflation borgar för fortsatt tryck på räntor

Claes Måhlén

Chief Strategist

Fixed Income

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Swedish Rate Wrap





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Swedish Rate Wrap — Winning strategy: short duration

In this week's Rate Wrap, we summarise our outlook on interest rates from our Global Macro Forecast. While we predict a slowdown in the US in 2019, we expect strong global growth to continue for most of 2018, which will influence the fixed income markets in the near term. We believe that short duration will be the winning strategy in this environment.

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

Central bank calendar — 2018

• Federal Reserve
• European Central Bank
• Bank of England
• Riksbank
• Norges Bank
• Bank of Japan
• Swiss National Bank
• Reserve Bank of Australia
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• Bank of Canada

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

FX Pilot — Will the US tax reform boost the dollar?

President Trump and the Republicans managed to squeeze in a radical tax reform in the nick of time in order to have it up and running in 2018. Whereas the changes in income tax are temporary, the changes in corporate tax are permanent, and it all starts at the beginning of this year. It is important to note that it is not only lower corporate tax that will incentivise US companies to bring their profits back to the US. For example, investing the money in the US will be more lucrative, as the new rules allow for quicker expensing of machinery investments. Also, dividends from foreign entities will be exempt from US taxes. We take a look at how this will influence the value of the dollar.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — Did the Riksbank just extend the QE programme?

Ahead of the Riksbank's decision this week, expectations were relatively consistent: a largely unchanged interest rate path and a terminated QE programme. Early repurchase of maturing bonds was also expected. The moderate market reaction following the decision indicates that the outcome was close to expectations. However, in the last Swedish Rate Wrap for this year, we consider whether in reality, the QE programme has once again been extended.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |