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Archive

Trump holds the key for commodities —

In a summer when investors have been caught off guard by everything from emerging market woes and the dollar's tailwind to a brewing trade war, commodity markets have once again appeared in the crosshairs in terms of market turbulence. This time, it is not China, OPEC or oil which are central to crisis, but rather it is the USD-financed emerging markets and their mined metal and soft commodity production. We do not think the emerging markets crisis will be a China crisis and we believe that copper and zinc are set to rebound.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Will CPIF win the index battle at the Riksbank?

Which inflation measure it is that sets the tone for monetary policy will be decisive for our view of the Riksbank during the rest of the year. While inflation measured in terms of the target variable, CPIF, remains above the inflation target, CPIF excluding energy is again slightly below the Riksbank's forecast. We expect the levels of both variables to be sufficiently high for a repo rate hike to occur in December, but underlying inflation must not weaken any further in comparison with our forecast. We do not expect a major review of monetary policy in conjunction with the Riksbank Board's September meeting, with the possible exception of a slight reduction in the likelihood of an October rate hike.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — Bond index changes, August 2018

  1. No major changes in duration
  2. Included bonds: LH518
  3. Indices will rebalance 2018-08-07

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — Bond index changes, July 2018

  1. No major changes in duration
  2. Included bonds: K2505
  3. Indices will rebalance 2018-07-06

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Trade conflict deepens

ECB more dovish than expected
Fed hikes rate and remains hawkish
Unchanged interest rate forecast strengthens the SEK
In focus: Stronger SEK in the third quarter

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Riksbank settles on unchanged repo rate path

Developments since the Riksbank's April meeting indicate that the repo rate path will be left unchanged at the meeting on July 2 (decision on July 3). The Riksbank thus continues to signal a rate hike before year-end, which is also our main scenario. Inflation and the krona both indicate an unchanged repo rate path. Accordingly, in our assessment, there is less indication of a decreased repo rate path, which the ECB's softer line and heightened global political turmoil support.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se