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Råvaruplanket - Trump mot världen

  • Trump mot Europa underminerar diplomatin
  • Trump mot Kina driver bred råvaruinflation
  • Trump mot Iran driver oljepriset
  • Trump mot NAFTA driver jordbruksråvaror

Martin Jansson



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Strategy comment — Iran deadline: US likely to quit deal, hold off on sanctions

Saturday May 12 is one of a series of recurring deadlines by which US President Donald Trump must decide whether to renew his country's 2015 deal with Iran. The deal released Iran from sanctions in return for limitations on its nuclear programme. We identify three scenarios ahead of Saturday and we believe the most likely is that Trump will leave the current agreement, but hold off on imposing new sanctions against Iran. This is in line with what we see as a key part of Trump's foreign policy tactics regarding Iran: creating uncertainty. We believe Trump is seeking to create a toxic atmosphere regarding Iran, which we believe he sees as much more effective than the sanctions themselves. If the decision goes this way, we believe it would be good for Trump, bad for the EU, and the price of oil would rise due to an increase in uncertainty.

Martin Jansson, Strategist |

FX Pilot — Communication problems at the Riksbank

As expected, the Swedish Riksbank last week decided to push back its forecast for a first hike of the policy rate. Finally, the rate-setting board also gave the impression of no longer worrying about a strengthening krona. In the press release following its latest monetary policy meeting, the Riksbank board changed the wording on the krona from "important that the krona does not appreciate too quickly" to "important that the krona exchange rate develops in a way compatible with inflation stabilising close to the target". Their stance also changed from being prepared to "implement further monetary policy easing" to being "prepared to adjust monetary policy". In combination with a very bullish SEK forecast, this makes us think that the Riksbank has had enough of SEK weakness and even wanted to prevent further depreciation. However, something appears to have gone very wrong.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

FI Comment — Bond Index changes, May 2018

  1. Danske Hyp 2312 and Spintab 193 included in HMSC and HMSM
  2. S3110 will be excluded in HMSL
  3. Indices will rebalance 2018-05-08

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — Riksbank expects the SEK to strengthen at record pace

As expected, the Riksbank adjusted its repo rate path to indicate an initial repo rate hike in December rather than September. Its inflation forecast was revised both up and down. The more remarkable story was instead the Riksbank's view of the Swedish krona. Its forecast for the trade-weighted KIX index was an increase of more than 2% on current levels during the second quarter, and of more than 4% by the third quarter. Coupled with a modified formulation concerning the krona in its press release, the Riksbank now appears to be loosening the tight currency knot by removing the 'put' in the EURSEK, which we think played an important role in the weakening of the SEK. We get the impression that the Riksbank is not interested in the SEK becoming even weaker. Given our view of the inflation trend, we believe the decision by the Riksbank signals a rate hike before year-end.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |

FI Comment — Danske Hypotek will introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. Danske Hypotek will introduce 2312; matures on December 20, 2023
  2. The coupon is 1%; ISIN SE0011116474
  3. Pricing at 27bp over swap, matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |