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Commodity Bulletin — Trump against the world

Trump against Europe undermines diplomacy
President Trump’s negotiating strategy (pursuing many high-stakes negotiations with little possibility of winning them all) may have been a recipe for success in business, but running US foreign policy with the same methods has disrupted the world order as we have known it since WWII. Europe’s leaders appear to have decided they can no longer rely on the US for a helping hand and are now trying to fight fire with fire.

Trump against China fuels commodities inflation
The trade war with China has shifted back and forth but has now entered a phase with a clear strategy. The “shot in Sarajevo” will be fired on July 6 when tariffs are imposed, which does not leave much time for a breakthrough. The US has its sights on China’s ambitions of climbing the value chain, while China is aiming at US commodities exports. With tariffs on everything from soybeans and beef to cars, there will be inflation on both commodities and consumer goods.

Trump against Iran fuels the price of oil
After 18 months of production cuts, OPEC changed tack during the year’s first meeting in Vienna. The expanded group, OPEC+, is returning to its target of 1.8 Mbpd. In practice, this means that the strong countries will have to increase production and compensate for the weak countries involuntarily having to cut more than the agreed production. Saudi Arabia has therefore prepared
the way for it to be able to capture Iran’s market share when US sanctions are re-imposed in November. The oil price rose on the details of when OPEC’s reserve capacity will decline further.

Trump against NAFTA fuels agricultural goods
Trump’s tough rhetoric against the US’s neighbours and his scorn for Canada after the G7 meeting have the potential to lead to NAFTA’s demise, and countermoves from Mexico and Canada in the form of soy and corn tariffs, would lay the foundation for food price inflation.

Martin Jansson, Strategist |

FI Comment — Kommuninvest introduces K2505

  1. Kommuninvest will introduce K2505
  2. The coupon is 1%; ISIN SE0011414010
  3. Pricing at 24bp over swap, matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

FX Pilot — Inflation print next obstacle for the SEK

• Markets expect rate hike from the Fed
• Higher inflation reading in the eurozone
• Reduced political risk behind yen weakness
In focus: Norges Bank to press ahead with a rate hike in September

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — Energy fuels interest rate hikes

Following a period with all eyes on the Italian crisis, attention is now turning toward the far north and the ECB meeting in Riga. Italy could actually induce a hastier decision on tapering the QE programme. We repeat our belief that the programme will come to an end in December this year.

For the Riksbank, most indications suggest a rate hike before year-end, in line with the repo rate path. Inflation outcomes in CPIF terms will be substantially higher than Riksbank forecasts, given current energy prices. Even adjusted for that factor, we believe inflation will land at or above the Riksbank's path, suggesting that the market will gradually price in a greater likelihood of a rate hike. Higher inflation should result in a widening of Swedish bond yield spreads relative to Germany.

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

FI Comment — Bond index changes, June 2018

  1. Large duration changes in HMSA50 and HMSA10 because SGB 1060 becomes shorter than 10y and SGB 1061 is included in HMSA10
  2. Included bonds: SGB1061, SCBC144, SEB 576; Excluded bonds: Spintab 188, LHYP 512, NB HYP 5530, SEB 572
  3. Indices will rebalance 2018-06-08

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

FX Pilot — Italian politics stirring things up for the global markets

• Major risk of Italian snap election impacts the euro 
• Swedish National Debt Office positions itself for stronger krona  
• Slowdown in the European business cycle 
• Interesting referendum in Switzerland 
In focus: Italy - a foreign country

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |