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Archive

Swedish Rate Wrap — Italy once again in the driver’s seat

Last week's Purchasing Manager Index confirmed the slowdown in the global manufacturing cycle and the increasing divergence between the US and the rest of the world.

Growing concern about political developments in Italy caused the market to dust off the PIGS theme, which in turn caused a considerable drop in Swedish bond yields. As a result, the curve is now the flattest it has been in a long time. We therefore change our view of the curve from flatter to neutral.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — SEB will introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. SEB will introduce 576; matures on December 20, 2023
  2. The coupon is 1%; ISIN SE0010049841
  3. Pricing at 26-27bp over swap; matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

FI Comment — SCBC to introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. The Swedish Covered Bond Corporation (SCBC) will introduce 144
  2. The coupon is 1%; ISIN SE0011167428
  3. Pricing 23bp over swap, matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — How will looser capital restrictions impact the CNY?

Capital restrictions are once again being loosened in China, with domestic stock and bond markets being opened up for foreigners. This is part of China's strategy to integrate its financial markets with the rest of the world, and ultimately to make the CNY a new global reserve currency. Opening up does not necessarily imply net capital inflows and give a stronger currency; we continue to expect a slightly weaker CNY versus the USD in the short run amid general USD strength.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Swedish Rate Wrap — Stronger krona no obstacle to rate hike

Remarkably, this week's inflation figures managed to land close to both the market's and the Riksbank's expectations. Even so, we saw the largest daily strengthening of the krona in conjunction with CPI results since 2013 (Figure 1). As we see it, this strengthening is a reaction to an unjustifiably steep decline in the wake of the Riksbank's repo rate decision. Backed by inflation figures that are in line with the Riksbank's forecast, and the minutes from the Riksbank's April meeting, the signals are growing stronger that a rate hike really will be introduced this year. We expect the increase in interest rates at the short end to continue, and repeat our forecast of a hike in December.

We also consider the size of the initial repo rate hike, which is back on the agenda this week following responses from the Riksbank Executive Board members to questions from journalists. Although we see few economic reasons to deviate from the standard 25bp steps, we do not preclude a smaller repo rate hike as a compromise solution.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se