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Råvaruplanket - Trump mot världen

  • Trump mot Europa underminerar diplomatin
  • Trump mot Kina driver bred råvaruinflation
  • Trump mot Iran driver oljepriset
  • Trump mot NAFTA driver jordbruksråvaror

Martin Jansson



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Commodity Bulletin




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FX Pilot — Inflation is not strong enough to keep the Riksbank on track

The weaker inflation numbers, especially CPIF excluding energy, lead us to believe that the Riksbank will decide to postpone its next rate hike from September to December at next week's Executive Board meeting. The krona is much weaker than the Riksbank's latest forecast, currently trading around 6.5 percent below forecast, leading us to believe in a minor revision to the rate path. With the risk of echoing a message from the past, we still believe the EURSEK is too high. Now that the UK and the EU have managed to agree on a transition period for the Brexit process, it is time to move on to negotiating the future relationship. Domestic UK politics do not make this second phase look any easier.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — Weak core inflation to lower the repo rate path

Weaker figures, primarily for the CPIF excluding energy, will in all probability prompt the Riksbank to lower its repo rate forecast at its monetary policy meeting in two weeks. In our view, major revisions are not warranted because the Swedish krona is markedly weaker than the Riksbank's forecast. We now expect the Riksbank to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points in December, instead of in September.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |

FI Comment — Swedbank Hypotek will introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. Swedbank Hypotek will introduce 193; matures on December 20, 2023
  2. The coupon is 1%; ISIN SE0011089622
  3. Pricing at 27-28.5bp over swap, matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

Saudi Aramco IPO — Can the crown prince deliver?

• McKinsey report laid the foundations
• Aramco is too big to value
• Too many "ifs" and "buts"

Martin Jansson, Strategist |