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FI, FX & Commodity Strategy

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08 Oct

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FI Comment — Bond index changes, July 2018

  1. No major changes in duration
  2. Included bonds: K2505
  3. Indices will rebalance 2018-07-06

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

FX Pilot — Trade conflict deepens

ECB more dovish than expected
Fed hikes rate and remains hawkish
Unchanged interest rate forecast strengthens the SEK
In focus: Stronger SEK in the third quarter

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Swedish Rate Wrap — Riksbank settles on unchanged repo rate path

Developments since the Riksbank's April meeting indicate that the repo rate path will be left unchanged at the meeting on July 2 (decision on July 3). The Riksbank thus continues to signal a rate hike before year-end, which is also our main scenario. Inflation and the krona both indicate an unchanged repo rate path. Accordingly, in our assessment, there is less indication of a decreased repo rate path, which the ECB's softer line and heightened global political turmoil support.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |

Commodity Bulletin — Trump against the world

Trump against Europe undermines diplomacy
President Trump’s negotiating strategy (pursuing many high-stakes negotiations with little possibility of winning them all) may have been a recipe for success in business, but running US foreign policy with the same methods has disrupted the world order as we have known it since WWII. Europe’s leaders appear to have decided they can no longer rely on the US for a helping hand and are now trying to fight fire with fire.

Trump against China fuels commodities inflation
The trade war with China has shifted back and forth but has now entered a phase with a clear strategy. The “shot in Sarajevo” will be fired on July 6 when tariffs are imposed, which does not leave much time for a breakthrough. The US has its sights on China’s ambitions of climbing the value chain, while China is aiming at US commodities exports. With tariffs on everything from soybeans and beef to cars, there will be inflation on both commodities and consumer goods.

Trump against Iran fuels the price of oil
After 18 months of production cuts, OPEC changed tack during the year’s first meeting in Vienna. The expanded group, OPEC+, is returning to its target of 1.8 Mbpd. In practice, this means that the strong countries will have to increase production and compensate for the weak countries involuntarily having to cut more than the agreed production. Saudi Arabia has therefore prepared
the way for it to be able to capture Iran’s market share when US sanctions are re-imposed in November. The oil price rose on the details of when OPEC’s reserve capacity will decline further.

Trump against NAFTA fuels agricultural goods
Trump’s tough rhetoric against the US’s neighbours and his scorn for Canada after the G7 meeting have the potential to lead to NAFTA’s demise, and countermoves from Mexico and Canada in the form of soy and corn tariffs, would lay the foundation for food price inflation.

Martin Jansson, Strategist |

FI Comment — Kommuninvest introduces K2505

  1. Kommuninvest will introduce K2505
  2. The coupon is 1%; ISIN SE0011414010
  3. Pricing at 24bp over swap, matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist |

FX Pilot — Inflation print next obstacle for the SEK

• Markets expect rate hike from the Fed
• Higher inflation reading in the eurozone
• Reduced political risk behind yen weakness
In focus: Norges Bank to press ahead with a rate hike in September

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist |