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Ränterullen — Kort duration

I veckans Ränterulle sammanfattar vi vår räntesyn från konjunkturrapporten. Medan vi spår amerikansk avmattning under 2019, räknar vi med att den starka tillväxten globalt fortsätter under större delen av 2018 och att det i stället präglar räntemarknader under den närmaste tiden. Vi tror att kort duration blir den vinnande strategin i den miljön.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Central bank calendar — 2018

• Federal Reserve
• European Central Bank
• Bank of England
• Riksbank
• Norges Bank
• Bank of Japan
• Swiss National Bank
• Reserve Bank of Australia
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• Bank of Canada

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Kronbladet — Kronan har påbörjat återhämtning

• Riksbanksdirektionen oenig om återinvesteringar
• Amerikansk skattereform gynnar dollar
• Brexit-förhandlingar kommer öka turbulens i pundet
• Olja trycker upp NOK

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Will the US tax reform boost the dollar?

President Trump and the Republicans managed to squeeze in a radical tax reform in the nick of time in order to have it up and running in 2018. Whereas the changes in income tax are temporary, the changes in corporate tax are permanent, and it all starts at the beginning of this year. It is important to note that it is not only lower corporate tax that will incentivise US companies to bring their profits back to the US. For example, investing the money in the US will be more lucrative, as the new rules allow for quicker expensing of machinery investments. Also, dividends from foreign entities will be exempt from US taxes. We take a look at how this will influence the value of the dollar.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se