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Commodity Strategy Comment — A done deal in Vienna: OPEC rises from the ashes

OPEC's biannual meeting on November 30 was about formalising the preliminary deal made in Algiers in September. Iraq and Iran finally came to the table and joined Saudi Arabia in formally trying to stabilise the oil price. This constitutes the first voluntary OPEC production cut in more than eight years and the oil price skyrocketed by 8% after the announcement. OPEC has decided to cut production by 1.2 million bbl/d, leading to a new production target of 32.5 million bbl/d effective January 1, 2017. The meeting was crowded with participants, as has been the case since November 2014, when the group decided to maintain output despite falling prices.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Strategikommentar till råvarumarknaden — OPEC sänker produktionen

Opec beslutade idag att för första gången på åtta år sänka produktionen frivilligt för att försöka höja priset. Gruppen sänker produktionen med 1,2 Mbpd och icke Opec-länder kommer bidra med ytterligare 0,6 Mbpd, varav Ryssland står för 0,3 Mbpd. Knäckfrågan verkar ha varit Irak och Iran som slutligen kom till förhandlingsbordet och gick med på Saudiarabiens inslagna väg för att stabilisera oljemarknaden. Iran får som enda medlem lov att öka produktionen och Ryssland anslöt sig till en sänkning trots att man tidigare enbart sträckt sig till att frysa produktionen.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Kronbladet — Den politiska agendan fortsätter att dominera

- Euron står inför viktiga val i Italien och Österrike på söndag
- Kronan långsamt starkare inför en avgörande månad
- Risk för svagare norsk krona

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — USD buoyed by global funding shortage

- USD: High costs for the USD in the FX swaps
- EUR: Referendum in Italy and Austrian presidential election on Sunday
- EURNOK: Risk of a weaker NOK in next week's survey
- USDCNY: Weaker CNY vs. the USD, but unchanged effective rate

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Yield rises set to continue

Continued steepening in sight
We saw huge interest rate movements in the aftermath of the US election, and this trend has continued. The Fed's re-pricing has been clear and the market is starting to approach two rate hikes in 2017. An increase in December is a dead certainty. The market is thus moving toward the Fed's own interest rate forecast. We see knock-on effects in the Swedish market and consider there to be scope for a steeper Swedish curve, which is supported by the increasingly strained labour market.

There continues to be a major, widespread shortage of dollars after the changed rules for US money market funds which took effect on October 14. The question is how far the Fed and other major central banks will allow this to go before they again start to utilise the facilities that are still available since the major financial crisis eight years ago.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se