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Commodity Strategy — From monopoly to duopoly

OPEC and non-OPEC agreed to start a new production cut to balance the market in H1 2019. The next OPEC meeting will be as soon as April, which further emphasises the high level of uncertainty around the new accord. The decision came after two days of marathon talks in Vienna and a long press conference to further convince the market of the strong alliance between Saudi and Russia. The meeting was all about Saudi and Russia, with OPEC clearly developing from a monopoly to a duopoly that cannot stand without support from Putin.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

LME Week 2018: — The metal traders’ forum in London

LME Week, the annual gathering of the global metal community in London, is steeped in tradition. Traders meet to exchange experiences, insights and opinions on the state of the market and future metal prices. The event traditionally represents the starting gun for price negotiations for physical supply contracts between industry producers and consumers. Quite simply, a huge amount of metal expertise is gathered under one roof. Global macroeconomic conditions face headwinds in the form of a trade war, an emerging markets crisis and USD strength hurting sentiment. Ferrous metals have outperformed base metals all year, as pricing is driven more by physical fundamentals than by macroeconomics.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Vardar AS — We discontinue credit coverage with immediate effect

  1. We terminate credit coverage of Vardar AS
  2. Our last recommendation was Market Perform

FI Comment — Stadshypotek to introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. Stadshypotek will introduce SHYP1588
  2. The coupon is 1.5%; ISIN SE0011063015
  3. Pricing 22.5-23.5bp over swap, matched maturity

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Keep an eye on inflation and Riksbank minutes

Ahead of last week's monetary policy meeting, we were relatively isolated in our expectation of an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points in December. Confirmation has now been forthcoming that a rate hike is close at hand. Following the most recent monetary policy meeting held on September 5, the Riksbank was uncharacteristically unambiguous that it intends to hike the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in December or February. However, there was no indication given as to how it plans to decide between the two alternatives. In our opinion, February seems to be more likely, as we believe that inflation will prove to be slightly lower than forecast by the Riksbank over the near term. Over the coming days, more information will become available, which we expect to underpin our conclusion as to when the interest rate will be raised. The inflation outcome for August will be released on September 14 and the minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting will be published on September 17

Christina Nyman, Head of Forecasting | chny09@handelsbanken.se

Ränterullen — Håll utkik på inflationsutfall och protokoll

Före förra veckans besked från Riksbanken var vi ganska ensamma om att tro på en räntehöjning om 0,25 procentenheter i december. Nu har vi fått bekräftat att en räntehöjning är nära. Riksbanken var ovanligt tydliga efter det senaste penningpolitiska mötet med att de räknar med att höja räntan med 0,25 procentenheter i december eller februari. Men de gav ingen indikation hur de väger de två alternativen. Vi har landat i att det lutar åt februari då vi tror att inflationen kommer bli lite lägre än Riksbankens prognos den närmaste tiden. I dagarna får vi dock mer användbar information för att underbygga slutsatsen om när räntan höjs. Dels inflationsutfall för augusti, dels protokoll från det penningpolitiska mötet.

Christina Nyman, Head of Forecasting | chny09@handelsbanken.se