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Ränterullen — Solsken på bostadsobligationer

Våren har lämnat en del övrigt att önska i ett väderperspektiv. Svenska bostadsobligationer har dock stått emot kylan och gått starkt. När nu värmen förefaller ha kommit på riktigt ser vi ett antal argument till varför solchanserna fortfarande finns där. Vi bibehåller vår rekommendation som "lång". 

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Commodity Strategy Comment — OPEC and non-OPEC tighten their belts

Focusing on details was never likely at the spring OPEC meeting in Vienna. The group decided to extend the current cut by nine months. Instead of concentrating on specifics, the meeting and press conference seemed to be arranged to create the impression of a strong alliance between the world's two largest crude oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Commodity Strategy Comment — The last hurrah from Vienna

We see a close to 100% probability of an extension of oil production cuts from OPEC at the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25. For H2 2017, we see compliance with proposed cuts as a much more difficult issue than the deal itself. We think there is a 95% probability that Russia will sign on for a new six-month production cut period, but we see only a 30% probability that Russia will keep compliance for that period. Oil cuts during H2 2017 will come at a high cost due to seasonally higher production. We believe the next big price turn will come from non-compliance from Russia in particular but also other OPEC countries, as growing US production shows evidence of the futility of subsidising growth there by keeping production off stream. Saudi Arabia seems assured that production cuts at any price are the right way to go; it seems to us that the longer OPEC tries to keep production down, the more such measures backfire. 

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Kronbladet — Trump ifrågasatt från flera håll

• Riksbanken föreslår ny målbeskrivning av inflationen
• Lägre politisk risk i Europa stärker euron
• Storbritannien riskerar stå utan avtal

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Strong yen despite BoJ efforts

-EURSEK: Sell the rally; SEK to strengthen ahead
-EURUSD: Forecast revised higher for Q2
-USDJPY: Abenomics will not see the yen lower

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se