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FX PilotWhen most things are expensive, the USD and yen are cheap

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We are now well into the new year, and it is time to consider our choices for the best FX market ideas for 2018. The year has started positively, just as last year ended, and it is hard to see why that would come to a sudden end any time soon. However, as we conclude in our Global Macro Forecast, we believe we are now at the very peak of the business cycle, and while a more pronounced downturn will not arrive until next year, signs of a slowdown are likely to emerge before that. Abundant access to cheap capital from the equity and credit markets has coincided with generous fiscal policy and low wage gains (despite negative unemployment gaps in many important economies) around the world. It is time to start preparing the ship for a rocky ride, and we are taking aboard the dollar and the yen for a smoother sailing.

Disclaimer

Lars Henriksson

Strategist

Foreign Exchange

lahe06@handelsbanken.se

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