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Swedish Rate WrapHeadwinds mounting at the Riksbank


As we know, bad news tends not to travel alone. The inflation surprise in January was followed by weaker unit labour costs and continued low wage growth. The market's conclusion is that a repo rate hike will not come until December at the earliest. In this edition of the Swedish Rate Wrap, we review what would have to happen for our forecast of a repo rate hike in September to materialise.

Overall, there is a substantial risk that the Riksbank will ultimately be forced to lower its repo rate path in conjunction with its meeting on April 25, and thus signal a repo rate hike later than in September. However, the fact that the Riksbank opted not to revise its repo rate path in February, despite a lower inflation forecast, indicates a certain willingness to start raising the repo rate.


Claes Måhlén

Chief Strategist

Fixed Income

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Swedish Rate Wrap