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Swedish Rate WrapKeep an eye on inflation and Riksbank minutes

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Ahead of last week's monetary policy meeting, we were relatively isolated in our expectation of an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points in December. Confirmation has now been forthcoming that a rate hike is close at hand. Following the most recent monetary policy meeting held on September 5, the Riksbank was uncharacteristically unambiguous that it intends to hike the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in December or February. However, there was no indication given as to how it plans to decide between the two alternatives. In our opinion, February seems to be more likely, as we believe that inflation will prove to be slightly lower than forecast by the Riksbank over the near term. Over the coming days, more information will become available, which we expect to underpin our conclusion as to when the interest rate will be raised. The inflation outcome for August will be released on September 14 and the minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting will be published on September 17

Disclaimer

Christina Nyman

Head of Forecasting

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

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