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Fixed Income

FI Comment — Swedbank Hypotek will introduce a new SEK covered bond

  1. Swedbank Hypotek will introduce 191, with a maturity of 5.5 years
  2. Coupon of 1.00%; maturity on June 15, 2022; ISIN SE0007525654
  3. Indicative pricing at 46.5bp over swap, matched maturity

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Riksbank lightens up on QE preparedness

Executive Board split regarding new measures
At first sight, there was nothing particularly remarkable about the Riksbank's final monetary policy decision for 2016. The repo rate is unchanged and the Riksbank will continue its bond purchases for another six months. However, if we consider that the Executive Board was totally split regarding the decision to make more bond purchases (two completely against and one in favour of half the amount), and that the possibility of more measures between the meetings is being removed, the tone is definitely more hawkish than expected.

We retain our view that the Riksbank has completed its monetary policy interventions. We believe the repo rate will be raised on the first occasion in H1 2018 and no further bond purchases will be decided. Concerning the repo rate, however, the risk scenario is tilted toward an increase toward the end of 2017. 

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Ränterullen — Riksbanken lättar på beredskapen

Direktionen delad om nya åtgärder
Vid en första anblick fanns det egentligen ingenting anmärkningsvärt med Riksbankens sista penningpolitiska beslut för 2016. Räntan ligger kvar och man fortsätter med obligationsköp ytterligare ett halvår. Men väger man in att direktionen var helt delad vad gäller beslutet om ytterligare obligationsköp (två helt emot och en för halva beloppet) och att man dessutom tar bort beredskapen för ytterligare åtgärder mellan mötena, så blir tonen ändå klart "hökigare" än väntat.

Vi behåller vår syn att Riksbanken nu är färdig med penningpolitiska lättnader. Reporäntan kommer höjas en första gång under H1 2018 och inga ytterligare obligationsköp kommer att beslutas. Vad gäller reporäntan är dock riskbilden tiltad mot en reporäntehöjning mot slutet av 2017.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — ECB paves the way for the Riksbank

Central banks will continue setting the tone in 2017
The central banks and monetary policy have been in the driving seat of economic developments for a number of years and their activities will continue to set the tone during 2017. The Fed will continue its tighter monetary policy, although focus in the US will be on future fiscal policy. The fact that the ECB has signalled an extension of its QE programme indicates that it will continue to be a central player in the European bond markets.

Now that the ECB has stated that its bond purchases will continue throughout 2017, we are more convinced than previously that the Riksbank will continue its own bond purchases. This is insurance against the krona strengthening too quickly and too strongly. However, there are a few aspects which mean that we cannot completely rule out a lower repo rate. For more details, see page 4.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Ränterullen — ECB banar väg för Riksbanken

Centralbankerna sätter tonen även 2017
Centralbankerna och penningpolitiken har suttit i förarsätet för den ekonomiska utvecklingen under ett antal år och deras förehavanden kommer att sätta tonen även under 2017. Fed kommer att fortsätta med en stramare penningpolitik även om fokus i USA kommer att tiltas mot den kommande finanspolitiken. ECB har nu meddelat att de kommer att vara en central aktör på de europeiska obligationsmarknaderna även fortsättningsvis i och med förlängningen av deras QE-program.

Efter ECB:s besked att obligationsköpen kommer att pågå under hela 2017 är vi än mer övertygade än förut att Riksbanken kommer att förlänga sina obligationsköp. Detta är en försäkring mot en för snabb och kraftig förstärkning av kronan. Det finns dock aspekter som gör att vi inte fullständigt kan utesluta sänkt reporänta. Läs mer på sidan 4.

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Yield rises set to continue

Continued steepening in sight
We saw huge interest rate movements in the aftermath of the US election, and this trend has continued. The Fed's re-pricing has been clear and the market is starting to approach two rate hikes in 2017. An increase in December is a dead certainty. The market is thus moving toward the Fed's own interest rate forecast. We see knock-on effects in the Swedish market and consider there to be scope for a steeper Swedish curve, which is supported by the increasingly strained labour market.

There continues to be a major, widespread shortage of dollars after the changed rules for US money market funds which took effect on October 14. The question is how far the Fed and other major central banks will allow this to go before they again start to utilise the facilities that are still available since the major financial crisis eight years ago.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se