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Macro comment — Macron in pole position after the first round

  1. Macron big favourite in round two
  2. Tricky presidency to come
  3. Euro rallies as an initial reaction

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — A headache for the Riksbank

We are approaching the Riksbank's second monetary policy decision of the year (the decision will be announced on April 27). The March inflation figure was a clear disappointment and, when evaluating developments since the February meeting, there are a number of other factors on the negative side. On the other hand, the economy is going at full speed. Overall, our view of the Riksbank remains unchanged: the repo rate path remains static and there are no increased bond purchases after the end of June. However, the risk scenario is on the dovish side.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Ränterullen — Huvudbry för Riksbanken

Vi närmar oss Riksbankens andra penningpolitiska beslut för året (beslut meddelas 27 April). Marsinflationen var en tydlig besvikelse och det finns även en del annat som väger i den negativa vågskålen när utvecklingen sedan februarimötet utvärderas. Mot det står en ekonomi som går på högvarv. Vi landar sammantaget i en oförändrad vy på Riksbanken; reporäntebanan ligger still och inga utökade obligationsköp efter halvårsskiftet. Riskbilden är dock mot det duvaktiga hållet.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Wage agreements are a chilly wind around the Riksbank

The wage settlement agreed upon with a range of unions in the industrial sector challenges the Riksbank's vision of a clear acceleration in wage increases in the future. The three-year agreement, with annual increases of 2.1-2.2 percent, means that other parts of the economy need to secure significantly higher wage increases. This appears somewhat unlikely, given that this wage agreement usually sets a norm. The agreement represents a major challenge for the Riksbank as it strives to ensure domestically-driven inflation.

We are changing our recommendation for Swedish mortgage bonds to Long from Neutral. We see a number of arguments for long spreads in EUR being imported to Sweden. In addition, there are a number of covered positive domestic factors, such as the Riksbank's impact on Sweden's bond markets diminishing after mid-year. For more details, see page 4.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Ränterullen — Löneavtal ger snålblåst på Brunkebergstorg

Industrins löneavtal utmanar Riksbankens syn om en tydlig acceleration i löneökningar framöver. Med ett treårigt avtal med löneökningar på 2,1-2,2 procent per år måste övriga delar av ekonomin få betydligt högre löneökningar, vilket förefaller mindre sannolikt då industriavtalet är normgivande. Avtalet får sägas vara en ordentlig utmaning för Riksbanken i dess strävan mot en inhemskt driven inflation.

Vi ändrar vår rekommendation för svenska bostadsobligationer till lång från neutral. Vi ser ett antal argument till varför de låga spreadarna i EUR ska importeras till Sverige. Därutöver finns ett antal covered-positiva inhemska faktorer som att Riksbankens påverkan på våra obligationsmarknader kommer att avta efter halvårsskiftet. Läs med på sidan 4.

Andreas Skogelid, Strategist | ansk03@handelsbanken.se

Swedish Rate Wrap — Oil price fall challenging the inflation trend

The global economic climate continues to be strong. We see evidence of this in the US where most macro data is exceeding market expectations. The recent harvest of data from China confirms a strong start to the year. The trend in global inflation is also positive. Previous monetary policy stimulus measures are feeding into the economy and contributing to the improvement that we are now seeing. This forms the basis of increasing long yields.
Inflation is partly driven by earlier energy price rises. The price of oil falling to USD 40/barrel by year-end represents a risk to our view of inflation and long yields. Despite this, we still believe that interest rates will continue to rise. We address this on page 3.

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se