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Market Participant Survey

Market Participant Survey — A majority still expect the repo rate to remain unchanged for at least a year

- Majority expect the repo rate path to remain unchanged at the next Riksbank meeting
- A majority is positioned for narrower mortgage and corporate bond spreads
- Mixed signals in EURSEK as views are neutral, positioning long
- Expectations rising for increased SEK volatility

Claes Måhlén, Head of Trading Strategy | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Market Participant Survey — Majority expect the repo rate to stay unchanged for at least one year

- An overwhelming majority expect the UK to stay in the EU
- Majority expect Swedish 10-year yields to increase
- Majority are positioned for narrower mortgage spreads
- Expectations for a stronger dollar are fading

Claes Måhlén, Head of Trading Strategy | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Market Participant Survey — Majority expect the repo rate to remain unchanged at the next Riksbank meeting

- Lower repo rate path expected at the next meeting
- Majority do not expect an increase in the repo rate for at least 12 months
- More respondents are bearish about mortgage spreads
- Low volatility expected as the Riksbank follows every move made by the ECB
- Less confidence in the dollar as expectations of Fed hikes decrease

Claes Måhlén, Head of Trading Strategy | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Market Participant Survey — Expectations of FX volatility are increasing

- No change in the repo rate path expected at the next meeting
- Majority still expect an increase in the repo rate in 12 months
- More respondents are bearish about mortgage spreads
- Expectations of higher FX volatility as year-end and central bank meetings approach
- Confidence in the SEK against the EUR is slightly higher

Claes Måhlén, Head of Trading Strategy | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Market Participant Survey — Majority see repo rate hike in 12 months

- More bearish expectations on Swedish yields
- More respondents bearish on mortgage spreads
- More trust in the USD as the first rate hike approaches
- Expectations of volatility are picking up
- ECB expected to increase QE at December meeting

 

Claes Måhlén, Head of Trading Strategy | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Market Participant Survey — Majority trust Riksbank to keep repo rate negative

- Less bearish expectations on Swedish yields
- More positive view on mortgage spreads
- Neutral positioning in SEK and low volatility
- Less trust in the dollar after Fed decided not to hike rates

Claes Måhlén, Head of Trading Strategy | clma02@handelsbanken.se