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Foreign Exchange

Kronbladet — Världen ser ut att gå mot stramare penningpolitik

• Svensk inflation inte bara högre, även bredare
• Data i eurozonen hotar att svika
• May väntas mjukna i brexit-förhandlingarna
• Inget löst i Nordkorea, men marknaden har släppt det

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Have you heard of the September 29 Riksbank meeting?

Ironically, an upcoming decision from the Riksbank's General Council may interfere with the ambitions of the Executive Board to prevent the SEK from strengthening. The second term of Stefan Ingves's governorship is approaching its end. If he leaves, it will mark the end of the longest period that a Riksbank governor has completed since 1973. There is speculation that he could remain for another term, but the minimum period is five years. Practically any other candidate would incite speculation about a tighter monetary policy. Stay alert on September 29, the probable date of the announcement.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Kronbladet — Vet du inte, min son, med hur litet förstånd världen styrs? (Axel Oxenstierna till sin son, Johan)

Krisen på den koreanska halvön kastar en mörk skugga över marknaden
• Riksbanken väntas avvakta ny besked från ECB
• Brexit-förhandlingarna går långsamt

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Reduced dollar supply from Fed’s QT plan will impact EURUSD

We take a look at how, in previous years, the increased dollar supply from the growing balance sheet of the Federal Reserve affected basis swaps and contributed to the weaker dollar. Now, we are in a situation where the ECB will continue to expand its balance sheet as the Fed prepares to start shrinking its. We believe that the relative balance sheets of the ECB and the Fed will soon start to impact basis swaps, thereby cooling off the EURUSD rally.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se