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Foreign Exchange

Kronbladet — Höjer Fed räntan tre eller fyra gånger under året?

• ECB mötet lämnade inget avtryck i euron
• Inflationen fortfarande under Riksbankens prognos
• Framgångar i Brexitförhandlingarna stärkte pundet
• NOK stärktes på höjd räntebana från Norges bank

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

FX Pilot — Not enough money to cover the debt

The giant leap in the Libor-OIS spread has puzzled us all. More and more analysts have concluded that the widening spread is due to a temporary oversupply of T bills (among other things) and that it will soon pass with limited effects on credit markets. We largely agree but remain alert in case the situation deteriorates. Whatever the outcome, we view the USD as the ultimate winner.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Kronbladet — Powell spär på spekulationen om fyra räntehöjningar i år

Sänkt norskt inflationsmål kommer inte påverka valutan
• Riksbanken har åter full kontroll på kronkursen
• Theresa May lyckades inte lyfta pundet
• Stark japansk inflation

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

FX Pilot — NOK to continue to strengthen at a slow but steady pace

The NOK has managed to hold on to most of its gains since the beginning of 2018, despite the increased risk-off sentiment seen since late January. The backdrop is an improved economic outlook, which was confirmed by Norges Bank's latest Regional Network Survey, which was mainly conducted in January. We do not think the modernised regulation on monetary policy from the Ministry of Finance, which set the inflation target at 2 percent (previously 2.5 percent), should have any short-term impact on NOK rates and the NOK exchange rate. The FX market has not agreed with our views in terms of EURUSD and EURSEK, and we therefore revise our forecasts for these currency pairs. We recognise the fact that the prospects for Swedish inflation worsened after the January reading and the probability of a rate hike from the Riksbank in September has decreased. We therefore raise our forecast for EURSEK. When it comes to EURUSD, we still await the effects of the tax reform and expect it to fall, but at the same time, we face the reality of it being too far off our forecast.

Nils Kristian Knudsen, Strategist |