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Foreign Exchange

Kronbladet — Höga förväntningar på amerikansk skattereform riskerar svika

• Bostadspriser och korträntor styr kronan lägre
• May under ny press inifrån partiet
• Norskt bostadsprisfall bromsar in i oktober

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

FX Pilot — We stick to our EURNOK forecast

The cooling Norwegian housing market is increasingly getting attention, and the heightened uncertainty is undermining the NOK. The decoupling of the NOK from higher oil prices is another factor adding to the uncertainty for the currency. Our main scenario is for a soft landing in the Norwegian housing market and that a '2-percent economy' should eventually result in a stronger NOK against the EUR. Our year-end target for the EURNOK remains at 9.30. In this report, we also investigate what will happen in the SEK market this year once the big pension flow in Sweden occurs on December 11. We find there is a good chance of more volatility.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Kronbladet — Sommarsolen hänger kvar över världsekonomin

• ECB lämnar slutet på QE öppet
• Riksbanken håller fast vid kursen
• Storbritannien: Små närmanden i brexit-förhandlingarna
• Norsk krona backar efter svag ekonomisk data

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

FX Pilot — Hard Brexit to weaken the pound ahead

We do not believe a hard Brexit is fully priced in by the markets and expect the sterling to weaken as the new relationship between the UK and the EU takes shape. An expected softer Riksbank and renewed worries about the housing market lead us to revise our EURSEK forecast higher.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |