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Foreign Exchange

Kronbladet — Stark återhämtning av kronan

• Riksbanksprotokoll och inflationsutfall lyfte kronan
• Fortsatt utrymme för dollarförstärkning
• Duvaktigt räntebesked från BoE sänkte pundet
• Oväntat svag BNP i Japan det först kvartalet

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — How will looser capital restrictions impact the CNY?

Capital restrictions are once again being loosened in China, with domestic stock and bond markets being opened up for foreigners. This is part of China's strategy to integrate its financial markets with the rest of the world, and ultimately to make the CNY a new global reserve currency. Opening up does not necessarily imply net capital inflows and give a stronger currency; we continue to expect a slightly weaker CNY versus the USD in the short run amid general USD strength.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Kronbladet — Kronan tillbaka på krisnivåer

• Riksbanken prognostiserar rekordsnabb kronförstärkning men kronan fortsätter falla
• Riksbanken flyttar första räntehöjning till slutet på året
• Starkare dollar och högre ränteförväntningar i USA
• Inget nytt från ECB

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Communication problems at the Riksbank

As expected, the Swedish Riksbank last week decided to push back its forecast for a first hike of the policy rate. Finally, the rate-setting board also gave the impression of no longer worrying about a strengthening krona. In the press release following its latest monetary policy meeting, the Riksbank board changed the wording on the krona from "important that the krona does not appreciate too quickly" to "important that the krona exchange rate develops in a way compatible with inflation stabilising close to the target". Their stance also changed from being prepared to "implement further monetary policy easing" to being "prepared to adjust monetary policy". In combination with a very bullish SEK forecast, this makes us think that the Riksbank has had enough of SEK weakness and even wanted to prevent further depreciation. However, something appears to have gone very wrong.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se