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FX Pilot

FX Pilot — Important Riksbank meeting in April

- Riksbank: Expecting a scheduled tightening in July
- EURSEK: Oil price to hold back inflation
- EURNOK: Uncertainty to hold back the NOK

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Italian banks: problem solved?

- Italy: The answer to banking issues is still far away
- EURSEK: Still a headwind for Swedish data
- EURNOK: NOK policy rate outlook almost unchanged
- EURUSD: ECB put on hold, Fed hike

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Jitters about “Frexit” overstate the risks

- Brexit story will not be repeated in France
- EURSEK: Corrective increase still in play
- EURGBP: GBP will hold up near term
- USDCNY: Authorities still control the CNY

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Basis swaps are guiding the dollar lower

- USD: Basis swaps are showing the way to lower USD
- EURSEK: Riksbank to weigh words carefully
- EURNOK: NOK-strength running out of steam
- USDCNY: Interest rate hike to support the CNY

 

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Frosty tomatoes feeding inflation

- EURSEK: Has Swedish inflation found solid ground?
- EURNOK: NOK benefitting from lower FX volatility
- EURGBP: Turbulent, and more GBP weakness ahead
- EURUSD: Getting back to basics

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — China is trying to scare off speculators

-EURSEK: Slowdown in Swedish outperformance
-EURNOK: Low inflation puts downside pressure on NOK
-EURUSD: Relative inflation favours parity
-USDCNY: Chinese 'punish' speculators
-EURCZK: Is this the end of the current koruna policy?

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se