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FX Pilot

FX Pilot — Have you heard of the September 29 Riksbank meeting?

Ironically, an upcoming decision from the Riksbank's General Council may interfere with the ambitions of the Executive Board to prevent the SEK from strengthening. The second term of Stefan Ingves's governorship is approaching its end. If he leaves, it will mark the end of the longest period that a Riksbank governor has completed since 1973. There is speculation that he could remain for another term, but the minimum period is five years. Practically any other candidate would incite speculation about a tighter monetary policy. Stay alert on September 29, the probable date of the announcement.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Reduced dollar supply from Fed’s QT plan will impact EURUSD

We take a look at how, in previous years, the increased dollar supply from the growing balance sheet of the Federal Reserve affected basis swaps and contributed to the weaker dollar. Now, we are in a situation where the ECB will continue to expand its balance sheet as the Fed prepares to start shrinking its. We believe that the relative balance sheets of the ECB and the Fed will soon start to impact basis swaps, thereby cooling off the EURUSD rally.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Riksbank unaffected by inflation rally

- EURSEK: Booming numbers will not cause Riksbank policy change now
- EURUSD: Rate hike from FOMC supports the USD
- EURNOK: NOK recovers from volatile summer months

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Not a cloud in the euro’s summer sky

- EURUSD: All set for a more hawkish ECB
- EURSEK: Good risk/reward in hawkish surprise from the Riksbank
- Our trades of the year: A recap at the midpoint

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — More room for USD strengthening

- Inflation, interest rate and the exchange rate
- EURUSD: US data to strengthen in H2
- EURNOK: Higher growth prospects will not affect Norges Bank's policy
- USDCNY: New reference rate procedure pushed CNY higher

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Risks of early Italian elections – the next eurothriller

- Eurozone: update on Greece and Italy
- EURUSD: eurozone political risk to increase
- EURSEK: short given risk outlook in eurozone

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se