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FX Pilot

FX Pilot — When France sneezes, Europe catches a cold

- EUR: Option volatilities indicate great fear of "Frexit"
- EURSEK: Increased volatility next few weeks
- EURUSD: Still USD-bull despite inflation miss

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Swedish dividends are front-end loaded

- UK: Subdued effects from Brexit
- EURSEK: Dividend flows have already peaked
- USDCNY: We change our forecast

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Important Riksbank meeting in April

- Riksbank: Expecting a scheduled tightening in July
- EURSEK: Oil price to hold back inflation
- EURNOK: Uncertainty to hold back the NOK

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Italian banks: problem solved?

- Italy: The answer to banking issues is still far away
- EURSEK: Still a headwind for Swedish data
- EURNOK: NOK policy rate outlook almost unchanged
- EURUSD: ECB put on hold, Fed hike

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Jitters about “Frexit” overstate the risks

- Brexit story will not be repeated in France
- EURSEK: Corrective increase still in play
- EURGBP: GBP will hold up near term
- USDCNY: Authorities still control the CNY

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Basis swaps are guiding the dollar lower

- USD: Basis swaps are showing the way to lower USD
- EURSEK: Riksbank to weigh words carefully
- EURNOK: NOK-strength running out of steam
- USDCNY: Interest rate hike to support the CNY

 

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se