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FX Pilot

FX Pilot — Strong yen despite BoJ efforts

-EURSEK: Sell the rally; SEK to strengthen ahead
-EURUSD: Forecast revised higher for Q2
-USDJPY: Abenomics will not see the yen lower

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Inflation still the only concern for the Riksbank

- EURSEK: Split central bank board takes another dovish step
- USDCNY: Authorities still in control of the FX rate
- EURUSD: We still expect a hike in June

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — When France sneezes, Europe catches a cold

- EUR: Option volatilities indicate great fear of "Frexit"
- EURSEK: Increased volatility next few weeks
- EURUSD: Still USD-bull despite inflation miss

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Swedish dividends are front-end loaded

- UK: Subdued effects from Brexit
- EURSEK: Dividend flows have already peaked
- USDCNY: We change our forecast

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Important Riksbank meeting in April

- Riksbank: Expecting a scheduled tightening in July
- EURSEK: Oil price to hold back inflation
- EURNOK: Uncertainty to hold back the NOK

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Italian banks: problem solved?

- Italy: The answer to banking issues is still far away
- EURSEK: Still a headwind for Swedish data
- EURNOK: NOK policy rate outlook almost unchanged
- EURUSD: ECB put on hold, Fed hike

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se