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FX Pilot

FX Pilot — Jitters about “Frexit” overstate the risks

- Brexit story will not be repeated in France
- EURSEK: Corrective increase still in play
- EURGBP: GBP will hold up near term
- USDCNY: Authorities still control the CNY

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Basis swaps are guiding the dollar lower

- USD: Basis swaps are showing the way to lower USD
- EURSEK: Riksbank to weigh words carefully
- EURNOK: NOK-strength running out of steam
- USDCNY: Interest rate hike to support the CNY

 

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Frosty tomatoes feeding inflation

- EURSEK: Has Swedish inflation found solid ground?
- EURNOK: NOK benefitting from lower FX volatility
- EURGBP: Turbulent, and more GBP weakness ahead
- EURUSD: Getting back to basics

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — China is trying to scare off speculators

-EURSEK: Slowdown in Swedish outperformance
-EURNOK: Low inflation puts downside pressure on NOK
-EURUSD: Relative inflation favours parity
-USDCNY: Chinese 'punish' speculators
-EURCZK: Is this the end of the current koruna policy?

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Our top recommendations for 2017

- Trade of the year: If you followed our advice last year, you did well. Read about our ideas for 2017.
- EURNOK: Expect Norges Bank to show a heightened probability of a rate cut
- EURUSD: US rate hike is just a formality

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — USD buoyed by global funding shortage

- USD: High costs for the USD in the FX swaps
- EUR: Referendum in Italy and Austrian presidential election on Sunday
- EURNOK: Risk of a weaker NOK in next week's survey
- USDCNY: Weaker CNY vs. the USD, but unchanged effective rate

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se