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FX Pilot

FX Pilot — SEK set to strengthen, but not just yet

• US economy performing at the peak of its capacity
• Brexit agreements may be pushed back to next year
• Weak NOK sets the stage for a higher central bank interest rate forecast
• In focus: later hike, but increasingly hawkish messages from the Riksbank

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Shaky krona ahead of election and next Riksbank meeting

• Expectations for the Riksbank have fallen compared to those for the ECB, weakening the krona
• Concerns about Turkey lead to stronger Swiss franc and yen
• Fed predicts more rate rises, despite criticism from President Trump
In focus: Groundless Swexit concerns weaken krona ahead of election

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Trade conflict deepens

ECB more dovish than expected
Fed hikes rate and remains hawkish
Unchanged interest rate forecast strengthens the SEK
In focus: Stronger SEK in the third quarter

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — Inflation print next obstacle for the SEK

• Markets expect rate hike from the Fed
• Higher inflation reading in the eurozone
• Reduced political risk behind yen weakness
In focus: Norges Bank to press ahead with a rate hike in September

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

FX Pilot — Italian politics stirring things up for the global markets

• Major risk of Italian snap election impacts the euro 
• Swedish National Debt Office positions itself for stronger krona  
• Slowdown in the European business cycle 
• Interesting referendum in Switzerland 
In focus: Italy - a foreign country

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

FX Pilot — How will looser capital restrictions impact the CNY?

Capital restrictions are once again being loosened in China, with domestic stock and bond markets being opened up for foreigners. This is part of China's strategy to integrate its financial markets with the rest of the world, and ultimately to make the CNY a new global reserve currency. Opening up does not necessarily imply net capital inflows and give a stronger currency; we continue to expect a slightly weaker CNY versus the USD in the short run amid general USD strength.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk